Forecasting in International Relations

Achen, Christopher. 2006. Evaluating political decision making models. In The European Union Decides: The Empirical Relevance of Policy Making Models , eds Robert Thomson , Frans N. Stokman , Christopher Achen and Thomas König , pp. 264-298. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Arrow, Kenneth J. , et al. 2008. Economics: The promise of prediction markets . Science 320(5878): 877-878.

Bechtel, Michael M. , and Dirk Leuffen. 2010. Forecasting European Union politics: Real-time forecasts in political time series analysis. European Union Politics 11(2): 309-327.

Beck, Nathaniel , Gary King and Lanche Zeng. 2000. Improving quantitative studies of international conflict: A conjecture. American Political Science Review 94(1): 21-35.

Berg, Joyce E. , Forrest D. Nelson and Thomas A. Rietz. 2008. Prediction market accuracy in the long run. International Journal of Forecasting 24(2): 283-298.

Brandt, Patrick T. , John R. Freeman and Philip A. Schrodt. 2011. Real time, time series forecasting of inter- and intra-state political conflict. Conflict Management and Peace Science 28(1): 40-63.

Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 2002. Predicting Politics. Columbus, OH: Ohio State University Press.

Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 2004. Decision-making models, rigor and new puzzles. European Union Politics 5(1): 125-138.

Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce 2009. The Predictioneer’s Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest To See and Shape the Future. New York: Random House

Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 2011. A new model for predicting policy choices: Preliminary tests. Conflict Management and Peace Science 28(1): 64-84.

Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce , David Newman and Alvin Rabushka. 1985. Forecasting Political Events: The Future of Hong Kong . New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.

Clauset, Aaron , Michael Young and Kristian S. Gleditsch. 2007. On the frequency of severe terrorist events. Journal of Conflict Resolution 51(1): 58-87.

Feder, Stanley A. 1995. Factions and policon: New ways to analyze politics. In Inside CIA’s Private World: Declassified Articles from the Agency’s Internal Journal, 1955-1992, ed. H. Bradford Westerfield , pp. 274-222. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.

Feder, Stanley A. 2002. Forecasting for policy making in the post-Cold War period . Annual Review of Political Science 5: 111-125.

Feil, Scott R. 1998. Preventing Genocide: How the Early Use of Force Might Have Succeeded in Rwanda. New York: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict.

Goldstone, Jack A. , Robert H. Bates , David L. Epstein , Ted Robert Gurr , Michael B. Lustik , Monty G. Marshall , Jay Ulfelder and Mark Woodward. 2010. A global model for forecasting political instability. American Journal of Political Science 54(1): 190-208.

Hempel, Carl G. 1963. Explanation and prediction by covering laws. In Philosophy of Science: The Delaware Seminar, Vol. 1, ed. Bernard H. Baumrin , pp. 107-133. New York: Wiley.

Hough, Susan. 2010. Predicting the Unpredictable. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Mack, Andrew , ed. 2007. Human security brief. Vancouver, BC: Human Security Report project, Simon Fraser University (www.humansecuritybrief.info).

Meadows, Donella H. , Dennis L. Meadows , Jørgen Randers and William W. Behrens III. 1972. The Limits to Growth. New York: Universe Books.

Morgenstern, Oskar. 1928. Wirtschaftsprognose. Eine Untersuchung ihrer Voraussetzungen und Möglichkeiten [Economic Forecasting: An Examination of its Preconditions and Possibilities]. Vienna: Julius Springer.

O’Brien, Sean P. 2010. Crisis early warning and decision support: Contemporary approaches and thoughts on future research. International Studies Review 12(1): 87-104.

Pevehouse, Jon C. , and Joshua S. Goldstein . 1999. Serbian compliance or defiance in Kosovo? Statistical analysis and real-time predictions. Journal of Conflict Resolution 43(4): 538-546.

Poe, Steven C. , Nicolas Rost and Sabine C. Carey. 2006. Assessing risk and opportunity in conflict studies: A human rights analysis. Journal of Conflict Resolution 50(4): 484-507.

Rost, Nicholas , Gerald Schneider and Johannes Kleibl. 2009. A global risk assessment model for civil wars. Social Science Research 38(4): 921-933.

Russett, Bruce , and John R. Oneal . 2001. Triangulating Peace: Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations. New York : Norton.

Rustad, Siri Camilla Aas , Halvard Buhaug , Åshild Falch and Scott Gates. 2011. All conflict is local: Modeling sub-national variation in civil conflict risk. Conflict Management and Peace Science 28(1): 14-39.

Schaffer, Lena Maria , and Gerald Schneider . 2005. Die Prognosegüte von Wahlbörsen und Meinungsumfragen zur Bundestagswahl 2005 [The prognostic value of election futures markets and public opinions polls in the German federal election 2005]. Politische Vierteljahresschrift 46(4): 674-681.

Schneider, Gerald. 2012. Banking on the broker: Forecasting conflict in the Levant with financial data. In Illuminating the Shadow of the Future: Scientific Prediction and the Human Condition, eds Frank Wayman , Paul Williamson and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita , in press. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.

Schneider, Gerald , Daniel Finke and Stefanie Bailer. 2010. Bargaining power in the European Union: An evaluation of competing game-theoretic models. Political Studies 58(1): 85-103.

Schneider, Gerald , Nils Petter Gleditsch and Sabine Carey. 2010. Exploring the past, anticipating the future. International Studies Review 12(1): 1-7.

Schrodt, Philip A. , and Deborah J. Gerner . 2000. Using cluster analysis to derive early warning indicators for political change in the Middle East, 1979-1996 . American Political Science Review 94(4): 803-818.

The Economist. 2007. The perils of prediction, June 2nd. Letters to the editor, 15 July (www.economist.com/blogs/theinbox/2007/07/the_perils_of_prediction_june ), last downloaded 28 June 2010.

Theil, Henri. 1966. Applied Economic Forecasting. Chicago, IL: Rand McNally.

Thompson, Robert , Frans N. Stokman, Christopher H. Achen and Tomas König , eds. 2006. The European Union Decides: The Empirical Relevance of Policy Making Models. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press.

Ward, Michael D. , and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. 2002. Location, location, location: An MCMC approach to modeling the spatial context of war and peace . Political Analysis 10(2): 244-260.

Ward, Michael D. , Randolph M. Siverson and Xun Cao. 2007. Disputes, democracies, and dependencies: A re-examination of the Kantian peace. American Journal of Political Science 51(3): 583-601.

Ward, Michael D. , Brian D. Greenhill and Kristin M. Bakke. 2010. The perils of policy by p-value: Predicting civil conflicts . Journal of Peace Research 47(4): 363-375.

Wolfers, Justin , and Eric W. Zitzewitz . 2004. Prediction markets. Journal of Economic Perspectives 18(2): 107-126.