Pas De Trois: the Synergism of Surprise,Threat,and Response Time and Its Effects On U.S. Foreign-Policy Behavior

Abstract

Pas de Trois examines the impact of surprise on U.S. foreign-policy decisionmaking behavior during the 1945-1994 timeframe. Since surprise is seldom found in isolation in decisionmaking, the research design assesses surprise in combination with the nature of threat and amount of decision time—two exogenous variables found concomitant with surprise in situ as well as frequently in the literature on the situational context of decisionmaking. Surprise, nature of threat, and amount of decision time are all conceptualized as exogenous; U.S. foreign-policy decisionmaking behavior is conceptualized as a dependent variable. Pas de Trois uses International Crisis Bank data, employing a factor analysis to construct indicators for nature of threat and decision time as well as for constructing two indicators of foreign-policy decisionmaking. A dummy variable is constructed for surprise using case studies. A subsequent regression analysis is employed to assess whether and to what degree surprise—in conjunction with threat and decision time— affects foreign-policy decisionmaking behavior. In testing two hypotheses. Pas de Tiois demonstrates that surprise interacts synergistically with nature of threat and response time to result ultimately in reactive U.S. foreign-policy behavior. However, in testing both hypotheses, Pas de Trois demonstrates a quite complex interaction between surprise, threat, and response time. The expectation, at the outset, was that surprise, threat, and response time would affect foreign-policy behavior in a similar manner: said variables would increase stress in decisionmaking and produce more reactive responses in behavior. In fact, this research demonstrates a much more complex interaction between these exogenous variables.