The public sector is experiencing a hiring crisis. This challenge is particularly evident in organizations that manage complex service delivery while facing sustained high turnover rates. Such organizations have, therefore, implemented multiple policy changes to improve employee stability with a limited understanding of how they affect retention and performance. This study analyzes 9 years of child welfare services data from one U.S. state to explore the relationship between frontline turnover and service outcomes, while accounting for the broader influence of professional identity and workforce capacity. The results show that the turnover-outcome relationship was weak and contingent on goal proximity. Additionally, a hiring policy change to address turnover by expanding the labor pool but ignoring professional identity further exacerbated human capital instability. The paper highlights the need to consider policy context and potential effects on professional identity when implementing changes to address turnover and encourage retention in complex public organizations.
AbelsonM. A.BaysingerB. D. (1984). Optimal and dysfunctional turnover: Toward an organizational level model. Academy of Management Review, 9(2), 331–341.
2.
AfshariL.YoungS.GibsonP.KarimiL. (2020). Organizational commitment: Exploring the role of identity. Personnel Review, 49(3), 774–790. https://doi.org/10.1108/PR-04-2019-0148
3.
AlexanderJ. A.BloomJ. R.NucholsB. A. (1994). Nursing turnover and hospital efficiency: An organization-level analysis. Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, 33(4), 505–520.
4.
AllenD. G. (2008) Retaining talent: A guide to analyzing and managing employee turnover. The SHRM Foundation.
5.
AllenD. G.BryantP. C.VardamanJ. M. (2010). Retaining talent: Replacing misconceptions with evidence-based strategies. Academy of Management Perspectives, 24(2), 48–64.
6.
AnS. H. (2019). Employee voluntary and involuntary turnover and organizational performance: Revisiting the hypothesis from classical public administration. International Public Management Journal, 22(3), 444–469.
7.
AnS. H.MeierK. J. (2022). Optimal turnover rates and performance in public organizations: Theoretical expectations. Public Performance & Management Review, 45(3), 582–604.
8.
AndersonH.BradyL.AdamsonJ. (2025). Exploring the relationship between cultural and structural workforce issues and retention of nurses in general practice (GenRet): A qualitative interview study. BMC Primary Care, 26(1), Article 114.
9.
AschhoffN.VogelR. (2019). Something old, something new, something borrowed: Explaining varieties of professionalism in citizen collaboration through identity theory. Public Administration, 97(3), 703–720.
10.
BallA.DexheimerE. (2015, January13). Changing Constantly Agency struggles with turnover as caseworkers face danger and stress, in some cases falsifying records in an attempt to keep up with overwhelming workloads–High pressure, low morale push CPS workers out the door. Austin American-Statesman (TX), p. A1. NewsBank: Access World News. https://infoweb-newsbank-com.uc.idm.oclc.org/apps/news/document-view?p=AWNB&docref=news/152D5F4580EC6B70
11.
BanduraA. (1997). Self-efficacy: The exercise of control. Freeman.
12.
BarthR. P.LloydE. C.ChristS. L.ChapmanM. V.DickinsonN. S. (2008). Child welfare worker characteristics and job satisfaction: A national study. Social Work, 53(3), 199–209.
13.
BerrickJ.DickensJ.PösöT.SkivenesM. (2017). A cross-country comparison of child welfare systems and workers’ responses to children appearing to be at risk or in need of help. Child Abuse Review, 26(4), 305–319.
14.
BrandsenT.HoninghM. (2013). Professionals and shifts in governance. International Journal of Public Administration, 36(12), 876–883.
15.
BrodkinE. Z. (2011). Policy work: Street-level organizations under new managerialism. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, 21(suppl_2), i253–i277.
16.
BrownT. C. (2005). Effectiveness of distal and proximal goals as transfer-of-training interventions: A field experiment. Human Resource Development Quarterly, 16(3), 369–387.
17.
BrummetQ.GershensonS.HayesM. S. (2017). Teachers’ grade-level reassignments: Evidence from Michigan. Educational Policy, 31(2), 249–271.
18.
BurstainJ. (2009). A better understanding of caseworker turnover within child protective services (No. 09-364). Center for Public Policy Priorities.
CyphersG. (2001). Report from the child welfare workforce survey: State and county data and findings. American Public Human Services Association.
22.
DaltonD. R.TodorW. D. (1979). Turnover turned over: An expanded and positive perspective. Academy of Management Review, 4(2), 225–235.
23.
de BoerN.SchottC.LoyensK. (2025). Increasing Street-Level bureaucrats’ Well-Being in times of crisis: A survey experiment with two social belonging interventions. Review of Public Personnel Administration, 45(3), 566–588.
24.
de Lancer JulnesP.SteccoliniI. (2015). Introduction to Symposium: Performance and accountability in complex settings—Metrics, methods, and politics. International Review of Public Administration, 20(4), 329–334.
25.
DessG. G.ShawJ. D. (2001). Voluntary turnover, social capital, and organizational performance. Academy of Management Review, 26(3) 446–456.
26.
DoltonP.NewsonD. (2003). The relationship between teacher turnover and school performance. London Review of Education, 1(2), 131–140.
27.
DubosR. (2017). Social capital: Theory and research. Routledge.
28.
EarleyP. C.ConnollyT.EkegrenG. (1989). Goals, strategy development, and task performance: Some limits on the efficacy of goal setting. Journal of Applied Psychology, 74(1), 24–33.
29.
ElginD. J.BarbeeA. P.KluckmanM.RingeisenH.DolanM. (2025). Child Welfare workforce recruitment, hiring, and promotion: Practices and desired qualifications (OPRE Report #2025-011). Office of Planning, Research, and Evaluation, Administration for Children and Families, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
30.
EdwardsF.WildemanC. (2018). Characteristics of the front-line child welfare workforce. Children and Youth Services Review, 89, 13–26.
31.
EmidyM. B. (2025). United States federal employee development in turbulent times: Using job demands-resources theory to explain changes in perceived performance and turnover intention during the COVID-19 pandemic. Review of Public Personnel Administration, 45(2), 255–284.
32.
FallerK. C.GrabarekM.OrtegaR. M. (2010). Commitment to child welfare work: What predicts leaving and staying?Children and Youth Services Review, 32(6), 840–846.
33.
FreidsonE. (2001). Professionalism, the third logic: On the practice of knowledge. University of Chicago Press.
GillenA.CanavanJ. (2024). Complexity theory and child protection and welfare: A tool of hindsight and/or a tool to assist improved decision making in child protection and welfare work. The British Journal of Social Work, 54(1), 59–76. https://doi.org/10.1093/bjsw/bcad180
37.
GlissonC.GreenP. (2011). Organizational climate, services, and outcomes in child welfare systems. Child Abuse & Neglect, 35(8), 582–591.
38.
GrissomJ. A.Nicholson-CrottyJ.KeiserL. (2012). Does my boss’s gender matter? Explaining job satisfaction and employee turnover in the public sector. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, 22(4), 649–673.
39.
HancockJ. I.AllenD. G.BoscoF. A.McDanielK. R.PierceC. A. (2013). Meta-analytic review of employee turnover as a predictor of firm performance. Journal of Management, 39(3), 573–603.
40.
HausknechtJ. P.HolwerdaJ. A. (2013). When does employee turnover matter? Dynamic member configurations, productive capacity, and collective performance. Organization Science, 24(1), 210–225. https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.1110.0720
41.
HendersonA. C.SowaJ. E. (2018). Retaining critical human capital: Volunteer firefighters in the commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Voluntas: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations, 29, 43–58.
42.
HendrikxW.Van GestelN. (2017). The emergence of hybrid professional roles: GPs and secondary school teachers in a context of public sector reform. Public Management Review, 19(8), 1105–1123.
43.
HomP. W.LeeT. W.ShawJ. D.HausknechtJ. P. (2017). One hundred years of employee turnover theory and research. Journal of Applied Psychology, 102(3), 530–545.
44.
HoodR. (2014). Complexity and integrated working in children’s services. The British Journal of Social Work, 44(1), 27–43. https://doi.org/10.1093/bjsw/bcs091
45.
HorwitzM. J. (2006). Work-related trauma effects in child protection social workers. Journal of Social Service Research, 32(3), 1–18.
Huggins-HoytK. Y.BriggsH. E.MowbrayO.AllenJ. L. (2019). Privatization, racial disproportionality and disparity in child welfare: Outcomes for foster children of color. Children and Youth Services Review, 99, 125–131.
48.
HupeP.HillM.BuffatA. (2015). Introduction: Defining and understanding street-level bureaucracy. In HupeP.HillM.BuffatA. (Eds.), Understanding Street-level bureaucracy (1st ed., pp. 3–24). Bristol University Press. https://doi.org/10.46692/9781447313281.002
49.
HurY. (2013). Turnover, voluntary turnover, and organizational performance: Evidence from municipal police departments. Public Administration Quarterly, 37(1), 3–35.
50.
JacobsonW. S.SowaJ. E. (2016). Municipal human resource management: Challenges and innovative practices in turbulent times. State and Local Government Review, 48(2), 121–131.
51.
KeelJ. (2014). An audit report on caseload and staffing analysis for child protective services at the Department of Family and Protective Services (Report No. 13-036). http://www.sao.texas.gov/reports/main/13-036.pdf
52.
KimP.ChoW.YangI. (2024). Workplace disruption in the public sector and HRM practices to enhance employee resilience. Review of Public Personnel Administration, 44(1), 86–115.
53.
KimS.WrightB. E. (2007). IT employee work exhaustion: Toward an integrated model of antecedents and consequences. Review of Public Personnel Administration, 27(2), 147–170.
54.
KnightD. K.BecanJ. E.FlynnP. M. (2013). The impact of staff turnover on workplace demands and coworker relationships. Counselor (Deerfield Beach, Fla.), 14(3), 20–23.
55.
KoJ.HurS. (2014). The impacts of employee benefits, procedural justice, and managerial trustworthiness on work attitudes: Integrated understanding based on social exchange theory. Public Administration Review, 74(2), 176–187.
56.
LathamG. P.ErnstC. T. (2006). Keys to motivating tomorrow’s workforce. Human Resource Management Review, 16(2), 181–198.
57.
LathamG. P.PinderC. C. (2005). Work motivation theory and research at the dawn of the twenty-first century. Annual Review of Psychology, 56, 485–516.
58.
LathamG. P.SeijtsG. H. (1999). The effects of proximal and distal goals on performance on a moderately complex task. Journal of Organizational Behavior: The International Journal of Industrial, Occupational and Organizational Psychology and Behavior, 20(4), 421–429.
59.
LeakeR.De GuzmanA.GoliebK.RienksS. (2020). Workforce development strategies: A model for preparing the workforce to support transformational systems in child welfare. Journal of Public Child Welfare, 14(1), 19–37.
60.
LeeS. (2018). Employee turnover and organizational performance in US federal agencies. The American Review of Public Administration, 48(6), 522–534.
Leon-MoretaA.TotaroV. R. (2021). Workforce capacity in municipal government. Public Administration Review, 81(2), 273–285. https://doi.org/10.1111/puar.13155
63.
LockeE. A.LathamG. P. (2002). Building a practically useful theory of goal setting and task motivation: A 35-year odyssey. American Psychologist, 57(9), 705–717.
64.
MayP. J.WinterS. C. (2009). Politicians, managers, and street-level bureaucrats: Influences on policy implementation. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, 19(3), 453–476.
65.
MeierK. J.HicklinA. (2008). Employee turnover and organizational performance: Testing a hypothesis from classical public administration. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, 18(4), 573–590.
66.
MeierK. J.O’TooleL. J.Jr. (2009). The proverbs of new public management: Lessons from an evidence-based research agenda. The American Review of Public Administration, 39(1), 4–22.
67.
MeyerR. E.Egger-PeitlerI.HöllererM. A.HammerschmidG. (2014). Of bureaucrats and passionate public managers: Institutional logics, executive identities, and public service motivation. Public Administration, 92(4), 861–885.
68.
MikytuckA. M.ClearyH. M. (2016). Factors associated with turnover decision making among juvenile justice employees: Comparing correctional and non-correctional staff. Journal of Juvenile Justice, 5(2), 50.
69.
MillerR. B.BrickmanS. J. (2004). A model of future-oriented motivation and self-regulation. Educational Psychology Review, 16(1), 9–33.
70.
MilnerH. R.IV. (2013). Policy reforms and de-professionalization of teaching. National Education Policy Center.
71.
MoonK. K. (2017). Voluntary turnover rates and organizational performance in the US federal government: The moderating role of high-commitment human resource practices. Public Management Review, 19(10), 1480–1499.
72.
Mor BarakM. E.NisslyJ. A.LevinA. (2002). Antecedents to retention and turnover among child welfare, social work, and other human service employees: What can we learn from past research? A review and metanalysis. Social Service Review, 75(4), 625–661.
73.
MosherF. C. (1968). Democracy and the public service (Vol. 53). Oxford University Press.
74.
MosherW. E.KingsleyJ. D. (1936). Public personnel administration. Harper and Brothers.
75.
MowdayR. T. (1984). Strategies for adapting to high rates of employee turnover. Human Resource Management, 23(4), 365–380.
76.
MoynihanD. P.LanduytN. (2008). Explaining turnover intention in state government: Examining the roles of gender, life cycle, and loyalty. Review of Public Personnel Administration, 28(2), 120–143.
77.
MunroE. (2005). A systems approach to investigating child abuse deaths. British Journal of Social Work, 35(4), 531–546.
78.
NaertJ.RooseR.RappR. C.VanderplasschenW. (2017). Continuity of care in youth services: A systematic review. Children and Youth Services Review, 75, 116–126.
79.
O’TooleL. J.Jr.MeierK. J. (2003). Plus ça change: Public management, personnel stability, and organizational performance. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, 13(1), 43–64.
80.
O’TooleL. J.Jr.MeierK. J. (2004). Desperately seeking Selznick: Cooptation and the dark side of public management in networks. Public Administration Review, 64(6), 681–693.
81.
ParkT.PierceB. (2020). Impacts of transformational leadership on turnover intention of child welfare workers. Children and Youth Services Review, 108, Article 104624.
82.
ParkT. Y.ShawJ. D. (2013). Turnover rates and organizational performance: A meta-analysis. Journal of Applied Psychology, 98(2), 268–309.
83.
PascoeK. M.Petrescu-PrahovaM.SteinmanL.BacciJ.MahorterS.BelzaB.WeinerB. (2021). Exploring the impact of workforce turnover on the sustainability of evidence-based programs: A scoping review. Implementation Research and Practice, 2, 1–23.
84.
PatelD.McClureM.PhillipsS.BookerD. D. (2017). Child Protective Services workforce analysis and recommendations. The Texas Association for the Protection of Children.
85.
PerryJ. L. (2018). The 2017 John Gaus award lecture: What if we took professionalism seriously?PS: Political Science & Politics, 51(1), 93–102.
PriceJ. L. (1977). The study of turnover (1st ed.). Iowa State University Press.
88.
ReaganE. M.GoodwinA. L. (2025). Let’s stop asking whether teachers are professionals. Let’s ask what kinds of professionals we want teachers to be. National Education Policy Center. http://nepc.colorado.edu/publication/teachers
89.
RonfeldtM.LoebS.WyckoffJ. (2013). How teacher turnover harms student achievement. American Educational Research Journal, 50(1), 4–36. https://doi.org/10.3102/0002831212463813
90.
SaltielD.LakeyR. (2020). Analysing invisibility: The decision-making ecology and home visits. Child & Family Social Work, 25(1), 37–44.
91.
SandfortJ. R. (2000). Moving beyond discretion and outcomes: Examining public management from the front lines of the welfare system. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, 10(4), 729–756.
92.
SedivyJ. A.RienksS.LeakeR.HeA. S. (2020). Expanding our understanding of the role of peer support in child welfare workforce retention. Journal of Public Child Welfare, 14(1), 80–100. https://doi.org/10.1080/15548732.2019.1658020
93.
SeijtsG. H.LathamG. P. (2001). The effect of distal learning, outcome, and proximal goals on a moderately complex task. Journal of Organizational Behavior: The International Journal of Industrial, Occupational and Organizational Psychology and Behavior, 22(3), 291–307.
94.
SeldenS. C.MoynihanD. P. (2000). A model of voluntary turnover in state government. Review of Public Personnel Administration, 20(2), 63–74.
95.
SeldenS. C.SowaJ. E. (2015). Voluntary turnover in nonprofit human service organizations: The impact of high performance work practices. Human Service Organizations: Management, Leadership & Governance, 39(3), 182–207.
96.
ShawJ. D. (2011). Turnover rates and organizational performance: Review, critique, and research agenda. Organizational Psychology Review, 1(3), 187–213.
97.
ShimM. (2010). Factors influencing child welfare employee’s turnover: Focusing on organizational culture and climate. Children and Youth Services Review, 32(6), 847–856.
98.
SlettenM. S.EllingsenI. T. (2020). When standardization becomes the lens of professional practice in child welfare services. Child & Family Social Work, 25(3), 714–722.
99.
StahlO. G. (1962). Public personnel administration. Harper & Row.
100.
StawB. M. (1980). The consequences of turnover. Journal of Occupational Behaviour, 1(4), 253–273.
101.
Strolin-GoltzmanJ.AuerbachC.McGowanB. G.McCarthyM. L. (2007). The relationship between organizational characteristics and workforce turnover among rural, urban, and suburban public child welfare systems. Administration in Social Work, 32(1), 77–91.
TrappenburgM.van BeekG. (2019). ‘My profession is gone’: How social workers experience de-professionalization in the Netherlands. European Journal of Social Work, 22(4), 676–689. https://doi.org/10.1080/13691457.2017.1399255
104.
TuurnasS. (2015). Learning to co-produce? The perspective of public service professionals. International Journal of Public Sector Management, 28(7), 583–598.
105.
U.S. Government Accountability Office. (2003). Child Welfare: HHS Could Play a Greater Role in Helping Child Welfare Agencies Recruit and Retain Staff (GAO-03-357). http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-03-357
106.
van BijleveldG. G.DeddingC. W. M.Bunders-AelenJ. F. G. (2015). Children’s and young people’s participation within child welfare and child protection services: A state-of-the-art review. Child and Family Social Work, 20(2), 129–138.
Van WijkR.JansenJ. J.LylesM. A. (2008). Inter-and intra-organizational knowledge transfer: A meta-analytic review and assessment of its antecedents and consequences. Journal of Management Studies, 45(4), 830–853.
VinzantJ. C. (1998). Where values collide: Motivation and role conflict in child and adult protective services. The American Review of Public Administration, 28(4), 347–366.
WeldonE.YunS. (2000). The effects of proximal and distal Goalson goal level, strategy development, and group performance. The Journal of Applied Behavioral Science, 36(3), 336–344.
113.
WilliamsN. J.GlissonC. (2013). Reducing turnover is not enough: The need for proficient organizational cultures to support positive youth outcomes in child welfare. Children and Youth Services Review, 35(11), 1871–1877.
114.
WillisN.ChavkinN.LeungP. (2016). Finding “health” and “meaning” in Texas-sized turnover: Application of seminal management principles for administration and research in US public child welfare agencies. Advances in Social Work, 17(2), 116–133.
115.
WilsonJ. Q. (1989). Bureaucracy. What Government Agencies do and why they do it. Basic Books.
116.
WrightB. E.KimS. (2004). Participation’s influence on job satisfaction: The importance of job characteristics. Review of Public Personnel Administration, 24(1), 18–40.
117.
WynenJ.Van DoorenW.MattijsJ.DeschampsC. (2019). Linking turnover to organizational performance: The role of process conformance. Public Management Review, 21(5), 669–685.
118.
YoungS. (2015). Understanding substance abuse counselor turnover due to burnout: A theoretical perspective. Journal of Human Behavior in the Social Environment, 25(6), 675–686.
119.
ZimmermanS.Gruber-BaldiniA. L.HebelJ. R.SloaneP. D.MagazinerJ. (2002). Nursing home facility risk factors for infection and hospitalization: Importance of registered nurse turnover, administration, and social factors. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society, 50(12), 1987–1995.
120.
ZimmermanS.SloaneP. D.EckertJ. K.Gruber-BaldiniA. L.MorganL. A.HebelJ. R.MagazinerJ.StearnsS. C.ChenC. K. (2005). How good is assisted living? Findings and implications from an outcomes study. The Journals of Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences, 60(4), S195–S204.
