While many governments have adopted performance-based accountability systems, how negative performance feedback affects managerial outcomes remains underexplored. We examine the impact of negative performance feedback on managerial turnover and the moderating role of race. We expect negative performance feedback to increase managerial turnover, with a greater impact for minority managers than their white counterparts. Using data from the Financial Integrity Rating System of Texas, we employ a regression discontinuity design with close performance scores. The results show that lower performance ratings cause an increase in the turnover of school district superintendents. This effect is larger for Hispanic superintendents, particularly when there is a higher degree of racial congruence between the school boards and Hispanic superintendents. The findings provide causal evidence for the impact of negative organizational performance on managerial turnover and indicate differential impact by the race of public managers.
AnbarciN.LeeJ. (2014). Detecting racial bias in speed discounting: Evidence from speeding tickets in Boston.International Review of Law and Economics, 38, 11–24.
2.
AngristJ. D.PischkeJ. S. (2009).Mostly harmless econometrics: An empiricist’s companion. Princeton University Press.
3.
AshforthB. E.MaelF. (1989). Social identity theory and the organization. Academy of Management Review, 14(1), 20–39.
4.
AudasR.DobsonS.GoddardJ. (1999). Organizational performance and managerial turnover. Managerial and Decision Economics, 20(6), 305–318.
5.
AveryD. R. (2003). Reactions to diversity in recruitment advertising–are differences black and white?. Journal of Applied Psychology, 88(4), 672.
6.
BaxterG. W. (2012). Reconsidering the Black-White disparity in federal performance ratings. Public Personnel Management, 41(2), 199–218.
7.
BoekerW. (1992). Power and managerial dismissal: Scapegoating at the top. Administrative Science Quarterly, 37(3), 400–421.
8.
BohrenJ. A.ImasA.RosenbergM. (2019). The dynamics of discrimination: Theory and evidence. American Economic Review, 109(10), 3395–3436.
9.
BoyneG. A.JamesO.JohnP.PetrovskyN. (2010). Does public service performance affect top management turnover?. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, 20(suppl_2), i261–i279.
10.
BoyneG. A.JamesO.JohnP.PetrovskyN. (2011). Top management turnover and organizational performance: A test of a contingency model. Public Administration Review, 71(4), 572–581.
11.
BrownR. A.FrankJ. (2006). Race and officer decision making: Examining differences in arrest outcomes between black and white officers. Justice Quarterly, 23(1), 96–126.
12.
CattaneoM. D.TitiunikR.Vazquez-BareG.KeeleL. (2016). Interpreting regression discontinuity designs with multiple cutoffs. The Journal of Politics, 78(4), 1229–1248.
13.
CelliniS. R.FerreiraF.RothsteinJ. (2010). The value of school facility investments: Evidence from a dynamic regression discontinuity design. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125(1), 215–261.
14.
ChoiS. (2009). Diversity in the US federal government: Diversity management and employee turnover in federal agencies. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, 19(3), 603–630.
15.
ChoiH.HongS. (2021). Linking political and bureaucratic representation: Does minority representation on city councils affect the outcomes of street-level service?. Public Administration, 99(2), 405–421.
16.
ChordiyaR. (2022). A study of interracial differences in turnover intentions: The mitigating role of pro-diversity and justice-oriented management. Public Personnel Management, 51(2), 235–260.
17.
ColleyL. K. (2012). Weathering the storm: Australian public sector employment security during decades of public management reform and the recent economic downturn. Review of Public Personnel Administration, 32(1), 87–101.
18.
ElyR. J. (1994). The effects of organizational demographics and social identity on relationships among professional women. Administrative Science Quarterly, 37(3), 203–238.
19.
ElyR. J.PadavicI.ThomasD. A. (2012). Racial diversity, racial asymmetries, and team learning environment: Effects on performance. Organization Studies, 33(3), 341–362.
20.
FinniganK. S.StewartT. J. (2009). Leading change under pressure: An examination of principal leadership in low-performing schools. Journal of School Leadership, 19(5), 586–621.
21.
GamsonW. A.ScotchN. A. (1964). Scapegoating in baseball. American Journal of Sociology, 70(1), 69–72.
22.
GiulianoL.LevineD. I.LeonardJ. (2011). Racial bias in the manager-employee relationship: An analysis of quits, dismissals, and promotions at a large retail firm. Journal of Human Resources, 46(1), 26–52.
23.
GlassC.CookA. (2020). Pathways to the glass cliff: a risk tax for women and minority leaders?. Social Problems, 67(4), 637–653.
24.
GreenhausJ. H.ParasuramanS.WormleyW. M. (1990). Effects of race on organizational experiences, job performance evaluations, and career outcomes. Academy of Management Journal, 33(1), 64–86.
GrissomJ. A.KeiserL. R. (2011). A supervisor like me: Race, representation, and the satisfaction and turnover decisions of public sector employees. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 30(3), 557–580.
27.
GrissomJ. A.AndersenS. (2012). Why superintendents turn over. American Educational Research Journal, 49(6), 1146–1180.
28.
HaslamS. A.RyanM. K. (2008). The road to the glass cliff: Differences in the perceived suitability of men and women for leadership positions in succeeding and failing organizations. The Leadership Quarterly, 19(5), 530–546.
29.
HeadleyA. M.WrightJ. E. (2020). Is representation enough? Racial disparities in levels of force and arrests by police. Public Administration Review, 80(6), 1051–1062.
30.
HinterleitnerM. (2017). Reconciling perspectives on blame avoidance behaviour. Political Studies Review, 15(2), 243–254.
31.
HirschmanA. O. (1970). Exit, voice, and loyalty: Responses to decline in firms, organizations, and states (Vol. 25). Harvard University Press.
32.
HongK.ZimmerR. (2016). Does investing in school capital infrastructure improve student achievement?. Economics of Education Review, 53, 143–158.
33.
HongS.KimY. (2019). Loyalty or competence: Political use of performance information and negativity bias. Public Administration Review, 79(6), 829–840.
34.
HongS.KimS. H.SonJ. (2020). Bounded rationality, blame avoidance, and political accountability: How performance information influences management quality. Public Management Review, 22(8), 1240–1263.
35.
HongS. (2019). A behavioral model of public organizations: Bounded rationality, performance feedback, and negativity bias. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, 29(1), 1–17.
36.
HongS. (2020). Performance management meets red tape: Bounded rationality, negativity bias, and resource dependence. Public Administration Review, 80(6), 932–945.
37.
HoodC. (1991). A public management for all seasons?. Public Administration, 69(1), 3–19.
38.
JamesO. (2011). Performance measures and democracy: Information effects on citizens in field and laboratory experiments. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, 21(3): 399–418.
39.
JamesO.MoseleyA. (2014). Does performance information about public services affect citizens’ perceptions, satisfaction, and voice behaviour? Field experiments with absolute and relative performance information. Public Administration, 92(2), 493–511.
40.
KalevA.KellyE.DobbinF. (2006). Best practices or best guesses? Assessing the efficacy of corporate affirmative action and diversity policies. American Sociological Review, 4, 589–617.
41.
KangH.ChenG. (2024). The effect of fiscal stress labels on local governments’ financial management: Evidence from New York state fiscal stress monitoring system. Public Finance Review, 52(5), 643–678.
42.
KiokoS. N.MarloweJ.MatkinD. S.MoodyM.SmithD. L.ZhaoZ. J. (2011). Why public financial management matters. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, 21(suppl_1), i113–i124.
43.
KoganV.LavertuS.PeskowitzZ. (2016). Do school report cards produce accountability through the ballot box?. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 35(3), 639–661.
44.
KraigerK.FordJ. K. (1985). A meta-analysis of ratee race effects in performance ratings. Journal of Applied Psychology, 70(1), 56.
45.
LeeD. S.LemieuxT. (2010). Regression discontinuity designs in economics. Journal of Economic Literature, 48(2), 281–355.
46.
LeeS. Y.WhitfordA. B. (2008). Exit, voice, loyalty, and pay: Evidence from the public workforce. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, 18(4), 647–671.
47.
LewisG. B. (1997). Race, sex, and performance ratings in the federal service. Public Administration Review, 57, 479–489.
48.
LewisG. B.FrankS. A. (2002). Who wants to work for the government?. Public Administration Review, 62(4), 395-404.
49.
MartorellP.StangeK.McFarlinI.Jr. (2016). Investing in schools: capital spending, facility conditions, and student achievement. Journal of Public Economics, 140, 13–29.
50.
MeierK. J.HicklinA. (2008). Employee turnover and organizational performance: Testing a hypothesis from classical public administration. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, 18(4), 573–590.
51.
MeierK. J.FaveroN.ZhuL. (2015). Performance gaps and managerial decisions: A Bayesian decision theory of managerial action. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, 25(4), 1221–1246.
52.
MeierK. J. (1975). Representative bureaucracy: An empirical analysis. American Political Science Review, 69(2), 526–542.
53.
Nicholson-CrottyS.Nicholson-CrottyJ.FernandezS. (2017). Performance and management in the public sector: Testing a model of relative risk aversion. Public Administration Review, 77(4), 603–614.
54.
NielsenP. A.MoynihanD. P. (2017). How do politicians attribute bureaucratic responsibility for performance? Negativity bias and interest group advocacy. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, 27(2), 269–283.
55.
NielsenP. A.MoynihanD. P. (2017). Romanticizing bureaucratic leadership? The politics of how elected officials attribute responsibility for performance. Governance, 30(4), 541–559.
56.
NielsenP. A.BaekgaardM. (2015). Performance information, blame avoidance, and politicians’ attitudes to spending and reform: Evidence from an experiment. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, 25(2), 545–569.
57.
PandeyS. K.NewcomerK.DeHart-DavisL.McGinnis JohnsonJ.RiccucciN. M. (2022). Reckoning with race and gender in public administration and public policy: A substantive social equity turn. Public Administration Review, 82(3), 386–395.
58.
PetrovskyN.JamesO.MoseleyA.BoyneG. A. (2017). What explains agency heads’ length of tenure? Testing managerial background, performance, and political environment effects. Public Administration Review, 77(4), 591–602.
59.
PfefferJ.SalancikG. R. (1977). Organizational context and the characteristics and tenure of hospital administrators. Academy of Management Journal, 20(1), 74–88.
60.
PfefferJ.SalancikG. (1978). External control of organizations—Resource dependence perspective. In Organizational behavior 2 (pp. 355–370). Routledge.
61.
PorumbescuG. A.PiotrowskiS. J.MabillardV. (2021). Performance information, racial bias, and citizen evaluations of government: Evidence from two studies. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, 31(3), 523–541.
62.
RobersonL.GalvinB. M.CharlesA. C. (2008). When group identities matter: bias in performance appraisal. The Academy of Management Annals, 1(1), 617–650.
63.
SabatI. E.GoldbergC.KingE. B.DawsonJ.ZhangL. (2021). Pygmalion in the pipeline: How managers’ perceptions influence racial differences in turnover. Human Resource Management, 60(4), 603–616.
64.
SaksA. M.AshforthB. E. (1997). Organizational socialization: Making sense of the past and present as a prologue for the future. Journal of Vocational Behavior, 51(2), 234–279.
65.
SalancikG. R.StawB. M.PondyL. R. (1980). Administrative turnover as a response to unmanaged organizational interdependence. Academy of Management Journal, 23(3), 422–437.
66.
SchwartzH. L.DilibertiM. K. (2023). Politics is the top reason superintendents are stressed: Selected findings from the Spring 2023 American school district panel survey. Data Note. RR-A956-17. RAND Corporation.
67.
StaufferJ. M.BuckleyM. R. (2005). The existence and nature of racial bias in supervisory ratings. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(3), 586.
68.
TajfelH.TurnerJ. C. (2004). The social identity theory of intergroup behavior. In Political Psychology, pp. 276–293. Psychology Press.
ThompsonJ. D. (2017). Organizations in action: Social science bases of administrative theory. Routledge.
71.
ThompsonP. N. (2019). Are school officials held accountable for fiscal stress? Evidence from school district financial intervention systems. Economics of Education Review, 72, 44–54.
72.
TsuiA. S.O’reillyC. A.III. (1989). Beyond simple demographic effects: The importance of relational demography in superior-subordinate dyads. Academy of Management Journal, 32(2), 402–423.
73.
TsuiA. S.XinK. R.EganT. D. (1995). Relational demography: The missing link in vertical dyad linkage. In JacksonS. E.RudermanM. N. (Eds.), Diversity in work teams: Research paradigms for a changing workplace (pp. 97–129). American Psychological Association.
74.
TzioumisK. (2018). Demographic aspects of first names. Scientific Data, 5(1), 1–9.
75.
Van MaanenJ. E.ScheinE. H. (1977). Toward a theory of organizational socialization. In: StawBarry (ed.) Annual review of research in organizational behavior, vol. 1, New York: JIP Press.
76.
Van der VoetJ.LemsE. (2022). Decision-makers’ generation of policy solutions amidst negative performance: Invention or rigidity?. Public Administration Review, 82(5), 931–945.
77.
WangW. (2023). How does performance management affect social equity? Evidence from New York City public schools. Public Administration Review, 83(5), 1136–1149.
78.
WangW.KimT. K. (2024). Do government performance signals affect citizen satisfaction?. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 43(3), 846–870.
79.
WeaverR. K. (1986). The politics of blame avoidance. Journal of Public Policy, 6(4), 371-398.
80.
WeiW.WangC.ZhaiW.LiW. (2022). “Honor list” and “shame roll”: Quasi-experimental evidence of the effect of performance feedback under political control. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, 33(1), 122–138.
81.
WhiteR. S. (2023). Ceilings made of glass and leaving en masse? Examining superintendent gender gaps and turnover over time across the United States. Educational Researcher, 52(5), 272–285.
82.
WhitfordA. B.LeeS. Y. (2015). Exit, voice, and loyalty with multiple exit options: Evidence from the US federal workforce. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, 25(2), 373–398.
83.
WilliamsC. R.LivingstoneL. P. (1994). Another look at the relationship between performance and voluntary turnover. Academy of Management Journal, 37(2), 269–298.
84.
WilkinsV. M.WilliamsB. N. (2009). Representing blue: Representative bureaucracy and racial profiling in the Latino community. Administration & Society, 40(8), 775–798.
85.
WingfieldA. H.ChavezK. (2020). Getting in, getting hired, getting sideways looks: Organizational hierarchy and perceptions of racial discrimination. American Sociological Review, 85(1), 31–57.
86.
YuJ.ChenX.RobbinsM. D. (2022). Market responses to voter-approved debt. National Tax Journal, 75(1), 93–119.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
