Recycling potential of cobalt metal from end-of-life new energy passenger vehicles in China

Abstract

The growing demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) has resulted in a corresponding increase in demand for cobalt as a critical material. It is crucial to estimate the cobalt resource recycling potential of China’s NEV industry to ensure a balance between the supply and demand for cobalt metal minerals. This article is based on using the historical data of the new energy passenger vehicle (NEPV) sales volume from 2013 to 2022 to estimate the NEPV sales volume from 2023 to 2035. On this basis, the Weibull distribution was used to analyse the different sales scenarios (low sales and high sales) of NEPVs in China, and the recycling potential of cobalt metal in NEPVs was evaluated under three battery life scenarios (8, 10 and 12 years) from 2023 to 2035. Based on the above scenarios, in 2035, the greatest recycling potential of cobalt is predicted to be 166.9 kilotonnes, with economic values of CNY 49.01–94.60 billion. Moreover, the extent to which the recycling potential of cobalt can cover the market demand for NEPVs was analysed. Our analysis concluded that recycling cobalt as a secondary supply has emerged as a necessary solution to supplement the primary supply, which can make a significant contribution to alleviating the pressure of the supply and demand.