Spatiotemporal evolution law and output prediction of construction waste in the People’s Republic of China

Abstract

Based on the relevant data of construction waste (CW) in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) from 2010 to 2018, this study applied K-means clustering algorithm and grey prediction methods to systematically investigate the spatiotemporal characteristic distribution and provincial clustering of CW in the PRC, and predicted the annual output of CW in the next five years from the scientific perspective. Results showed that the annual output of CW in the PRC displayed an overall trend of “rising first and then falling” and “being high in the middle east and low in the northwest,” and the areas with obvious agglomeration gradually spread from the west to the middle and eastern regions. The law of development was consistent with the goals of the Chinese government to promulgate urban agglomeration development policies, prefabricated building encouragement policies, and CW management regulations. In the next five years, the annual output of CW in the PRC will increase by a small margin. Thus, all aspects of CW resource management should be conducted in a planned and step-by-step manner.