Forecasting Models for Managing a Changing Inmate Population: Implications for Public Policy

Abstract

Among the most critical public policy issues confronting local, state, and federal officials is the rapid increase in the correctional population. By the end of 1989, a record-breaking 710,054 men and women were imprisoned. Unfortunately, overcrowded institutional conditions have caused an increase in inmate violence, inadequate staffing, and inadequate medical care, especially for the aging prison population. Should these trends continue without appropriate intervention, the economic, social, and medical impacts of managing and operating correctional facilities may be devastating.

A secondary analysis of a national data base was conducted in order to make population projections and to determine movement within age groups over time. Discussions of the application of a difference equation model and of subsequent implications for managing correctional facilities are also presented.