Inter-Party Competition,Public Electoral Pressure,and Democratic Strength: Refining Political Explanations of Incarceration Trends in the U.S.,1980 – 2010
Restricted accessResearch articleFirst published online June, 2023
Inter-Party Competition,Public Electoral Pressure,and Democratic Strength: Refining Political Explanations of Incarceration Trends in the U.S.,1980 – 2010
The purpose of this research is to advance the politics of mass imprisonment literature by testing and specifying the macro-explanations of the state-level incarceration change in the United States (U.S.) between 1980 and 2010. Specifically, I account for mechanisms of inter-party competition and public electoral pressure neglected in prior research. To accomplish this goal, I utilize random coefficient models designed to control for repeated annual measures of state-level data that overwhelm traditional analytic techniques. Findings suggest that violent crime, partisan affiliation of state legislators and governors, probation rates, citizen ideology, marijuana decriminalization, and recidivist-focused laws are associated with incarceration as hypothesized, as well as the African American presence net of crime and socioeconomic disadvantage. Contributing to the theoretical debates on democracy and punishment, this paper demonstrates that inter-party competition and public electoral pressure amplify incarceration in the context of Democratic Party dominance, where no liberalizing effects of competition were found. I conclude that legal and extralegal factors are associated with incarceration and suggest that the public did not oppose criminal justice expansion via democratic feedback mechanisms, so both penal populism (Pratt, 2008) and popular punitivism (Campbell et al., 2017) are valid interpretations of imprisonment politics during the analyzed period.
AebiM. F.DelgrandeN.MarguetY. (2015). Have community sanctions and measures widened the net of the European criminal justice systems?Punishment and Society, 17(5), 575–597. https://doi.org/10.1177/1462474515615694
2.
AlexanderM. (2010). The new Jim Crow: Mass incarceration in the age of colorblindness. New Press.
BarkerV. (2009). The politics of imprisonment: How the democratic process shapes the way America punishes offenders. Oxford University Press.
6.
BarrilleauxC.HolbrookT.LangerL. (2002). Electoral competition, legislative balance, and American state welfare policy. American Journal of Political Science, 46(2), 415–427. https://doi.org/10.2307/3088385
7.
BeckA. J.BlumsteinA. (2018). Racial disproportionality in U.S. State prisons: Accounting for the effects of racial and ethnic differences in criminal involvement, arrests, sentencing, and time served. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 34(3), 853–883. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-017-9357-6
8.
BeckN.KatzJ. (1995). What to do (and not to do) with time-series cross-section data. American Political Science Review, 89(3), 634–647. https://jstor.org/stable/2082979
9.
BeckettK. (1997). Making crime pay: Law and order in contemporary American politics. Oxford University Press.
10.
BeckettK.GodoyA. (2008). Power, politics, and penality: Punitiveness as backlash in American democracies. Studies in Law, Politics and Society, 45, 139–173. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1059-4337(08)45004-4
11.
BerryW. D.RingquistE. J.FordingR. C.HansonR. L. (1998). Measuring citizen and government ideology in the American states, 1960–93. American Journal of Political Science, 42(1), 327. https://doi.org/10.2307/2991759
12.
BlalockH. M. (1967). Toward a theory of minority group relations. John Wiley & Sons.
13.
BraceC. L. (1872/1967). The dangerous classes of New York and twenty years’ work among them. Patterson Smith.
14.
BrownE. K. (2013). Foreclosing on incarceration? State correctional policy enactments and the great recession. Criminal Justice Policy Review, 24(3), 317–337. https://doi.org/10.1177/0887403411434547
15.
BrownE. K. (2020). Toward refining the criminology of mass incarceration: Group-based trajectories of U. S. States, 1977–2010. Criminal Justice Review, 45(1), 45–63. https://doi.org/10.1177/0734016815627859
16.
Bureau of Justice Statistics (2017). National prisoner statistics program, 1978–2016. Bureau of Justice Statistics.
17.
CampbellC. M.MakinD. A.RijkhoffS. A. M. (2017). A rhetorical balancing act: Popular punitivism in the Netherlands. Punishment and Society, 19(5), 543–567. https://doi.org/10.1177/1462474516672882
18.
CampbellM. C.VogelM.WilliamsJ. (2015). Historical contingencies and the evolving importance of race, violent crime, and region in explaining mass incarceration in the United States. Criminology; An Interdisciplinary Journal, 53(2), 180–203. https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9125.12065
19.
CarsonA. (2020). Prisoners in 2019. Bureau of Justice Statistics.
ChiricosT.WelchK.GertzM. (2004). Racial typification of crime and support for punitive measures. Criminology; An Interdisciplinary Journal, 42(2), 358–390. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9125.2004.tb00523.x
22.
CostelloeM. T.ChiricosT.GertzM. (2009). Punitive attitudes toward criminals: Exploring the relevance of crime salience and economic insecurity. Punishment and Society, 11(1), 25–49. https://doi.org/10.1177/1462474508098131
23.
CrifasiC. K.PollockK. M.WebsterD. W. (2016). Effects of state-level policy changes on homicide and nonfatal shootings of law enforcement officers. Injury Prevention, 22(4), 274–278. https://doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2015- 041825
24.
DaganD.TelesS. M. (2016). Prison break: Why conservatives turned against mass incarceration. Oxford University Press.
25.
DiggleP.HeagertyP.LiangK.ZeggerS. (2002). Analysis of longitudinal data. Oxford University Press.
26.
DownsA. (1957). An economic theory of democracy. Harper and Row.
27.
DrakulichK. M. (2015). The hidden role of racial bias in support for policies related to inequality and crime. Punishment and Society, 17(5), 541–574. https://doi.org/10.1177/1462474515604041
28.
Du BoisW. E. B. (1899/1995). The Philadelphia Negro. University of Pennsylvania Press.
29.
DuganL. (2010). Estimating effects over time for single and multiple units. In PiqueroA.WeisburdD. (Eds.), Handbook of quantitative criminology (pp. 741–763). Springer.
30.
DuranteK. A. (2020). Racial and ethnic disparities in prison admissions: An evaluation of racial/ethnic threat, socioeconomic inequality, and political climate explanations. Race and Justice, 10(2), 176–202. https://doi.org/10.1177/2153368717738038
31.
EnnsP. K. (2014). The public’s increasing punitiveness and its influence on mass incarceration in the United States. American Journal of Political Science, 58(4), 857–872. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12098
FoucaultM. (1979). Discipline and punish: The birth of a prison. Vintage Books.
34.
GalbraithJ. K.HaleJ. T. (2008). State income inequality and presidential election turnout and outcomes. Social Science Quarterly, 89(4), 887–901. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6237.2008.00589.x
35.
GarlandD. (2001). The culture of control: Crime and social order in contemporary society. University of Chicago Press.
36.
GarlandD. (2018). Theoretical advances and problems in the sociology of punishment. Punishment and Society, 20(1), 8–33. https://doi.org/10.1177/1462474517737274
37.
GarsonG. D. (2013). Hierarchical linear modeling: Guide and applications. Sage.
38.
GoldsteinR. (2019). The politics of decarceration. The Yale Law Journal, 129(2), 446–486.
39.
GottschalkM. (2015). Caught: The prison state and the lockdown of American politics. Princeton University Press.
HawesD. P. (2017). Social capital, racial context, and incarcerations in the American states. State Politics and Policy Quarterly, 17(4), 393–417. https://doi.org/10.1177/1532440017720776
43.
HolbrookT. M.Van DunkE. (1993). Electoral competition in the American states. American Political Science Review, 87(4), 955–962. https://doi.org/10.2307/2938827
44.
HoodM. V.KiddQ.MorrisI. L. (1999). Using Democratic senators to analyze political change in the south, 1960-1995. American Journal of Political Science, 43(2), 465–487. https://doi.org/10.2307/2991802
45.
JacobsD.CarmichaelJ. T. (2001). The politics of punishment across time and space: A pooled time-series analysis of imprisonment rates. Social Forces, 80(1), 61–89. https://doi.org/10.1353/sof.2001.0070
46.
JacobsD.HelmsR. E. (1996). Toward a political model of incarceration: A time-series examination of multiple explanations for prison admission rates. American Journal of Sociology, 102(2), 323–357. https://doi.org/10.1086/230949
JenningsW.FarrallS.GrayE.HayC. (2017). Penal populism and the public thermostat: Crime, public punitiveness, and public policy. Governance, 30(3), 463–481. https://doi.org/10.1111/gove.12214
49.
KaebleD. (2018). Probation and parole in the United States, 2016. Bureau of Justice Statistics.
50.
KentS. L.JacobsD. (2005). Minority threat and police strength from 1980 to 2000: A fixed-effects analysis of nonlinear and interactive effects in large U.S. cities. Criminology; An Interdisciplinary Journal, 43(3), 731–760. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0011-1348.2005.00022.x
51.
KeyV. O. (1949). Southern politics. Knopf Publishing Group.
52.
KlarnerC. (2003). The measurement of the partisan balance of state government. State Politics and Policy Quarterly, 3(3), 309–319. https://doi.org/10.1177/153244000300300305
53.
LaceyN. (2008). The prisoners’ dilemma: Political economy and punishment in contemporary democracies. Cambridge University Press.
54.
ListokinY. (2003). Does more crime mean more prisoners? An instrumental variables approach. The Journal of Law and Economics, 46(1), 181–206. https://doi.org/10.1086/343779
55.
LukeD. A. (2004). Multilevel modeling. Sage.
56.
LynchM. (2010). Sunbelt justice: Arizona and the transformation of American punishment. Stanford Law Books.
57.
MillerL. L. (2013). Power to the people: Violent victimization, inequality and democratic politics. Theoretical Criminology, 17(3), 283–313. https://doi.org/10.1177/1362480612471151
58.
MurakawaN. (2014). The first civil right: How liberals built prison America. Oxford University Press.
59.
PetersiliaJ.CullenF. T. (2015). Liberal but not stupid: Meeting the promise of downsizing prisons. SSRN Electronic Journal, 2(1), 1–43. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2458024
60.
PettitB. (2012). Invisible men: Mass incarceration and the myth of black progress. Russell Publishing Sage Foundation.
61.
PfaffJ. F. (2008). The empirics of prison growth: A critical review and path forward. Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, 98(2), 547–619.
62.
PhelpsM. (2011). Mass incarceration and (mass) probation: The two faces of punitiveness or differing strategies of social control?Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Sociological Association, Las Vegas, NV.
63.
PhelpsM. S.PagerD. (2016). Inequality and punishment. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 663(1), 185–203. https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716215596972
64.
PrattJ. (2008). When penal populism stops: Legitimacy, scandal and the power to punish in New Zealand. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Criminology, 41(3), 364–383. https://doi.org/10.1375/acri.41.3.364
65.
PrattJ.ErikssonA. (2013). Contrasts in punishment: An explanation of anglophone excess and nordic exceptionalism. Routledge.
66.
QuillianL. (1996). Group threat and regional change in attitudes toward African-Americans. American Journal of Sociology, 102(3), 816–860. https://doi.org/10.1086/230998
67.
QuillianL.PagerD. (2001). Black neighbors, higher crime? The role of racial stereotypes in evaluations of neighborhood crime. American Journal of Sociology, 107(3), 717–767. https://doi.org/10.1086/338938
68.
RanneyA. (1976). Parties in state politics. In JacobH.VinesK. (Eds.), Politics in American states (pp. 34–65). Little, Brown, and Co.
69.
RuscheG.KirchheimerO. (1939/68). Punishment and social structure. Russell and Russell.
70.
ScheptJ. (2015). Progressive punishment: Job loss, jail growth, and the neoliberal logic of carceral expansion. New York University Press.
71.
SchneiderG. L. (2003). Conservatism in America since 1930. New York University Press.
72.
ScottE. M. (2010). Marijuana decriminalization. Office of Legislative Research Report No. 2010-R- 0204. Connecticut General Assembly.
73.
SheldenR. G.VasilievP. V. (2018). Controlling the dangerous classes: A history of criminal justice in america. Waveland Press.
SilverJ. R.SilverE. (2017). Why are conservatives more punitive than liberals? A moral foundations approach. Law and Human Behavior, 41(3), 258–272. https://doi.org/10.1037/lhb0000232
76.
SlivaS. M. (2016). Determinants of state innovations in American sentencing and corrections policy. Criminal Justice Policy Review, 27(7), 702–722. https://doi.org/10.1177/0887403414556645
77.
SmithK. B. (2004). The politics of punishment: Evaluating political explanations of incarceration rates. The Journal of Politics, 66(3), 925–938. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2004.00283.x
78.
SorensenJ.StemenD. (2002). The effect of state sentencing policies on incarceration rates. Crime and Delinquency, 48(3), 456–475. https://doi.org/10.1177/001112870204800305
SteffensmeierD.FeldmeyerB. E. N.HarrisC. T.UlmerJ. T. (2011). Reassessing trends in black violent crime, 1980–2008: Sorting out the ‘Hispanic effect’ in uniform crime reports arrests, national crime victimization survey offender estimates, and U.S. prisoner counts. Criminology; An Interdisciplinary Journal, 49(1), 197–251. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9125.2010.00222.x
82.
StemenD.RengifoA. F. (2011). Policies and imprisonment: The impact of structured sentencing and determinate sentencing on state incarceration rates, 1978–2004. Justice Quarterly, 28(1), 174–201. https://doi.org/10.1080/07418821003694759
83.
StuckyT. D.HeimerK.LangJ. B. (2005). Partisan politics, electoral competition and imprisonment: An analysis of states over time. Criminology; An Interdisciplinary Journal, 43(1), 211–248. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0011-1348.2005.00007.x
84.
SubramanianR.MorenoR. (2014). Drug war détente? A review of state-level drug law reform, 2009–2013. Vera Institute of Justice.
85.
SuttonJ. R. (2000). Imprisonment and social classification in five common-law democracies, 1955–1985. American Journal of Sociology, 106(2), 350–386. https://doi.org/10.1086/316961
86.
TerryW. C. (2016). The electoral determinants of state welfare effort in the U.S. south, 1960–2008. State Politics and Policy Quarterly, 16(4), 455–480. https://doi.org/10.1177/1532440016645553
87.
TonryM. (2009). Explanations of American punishment policies: A national history. Punishment and Society, 11(3), 377–394. https://doi.org/10.1177/1462474509334609
88.
TylerT. R.BoeckmannR. J. (1997). Three strikes and you are out, but why? The psychology of public support for punishing rule breakers. Law and Society Review, 31(2), 237–266. https://doi.org/10.2307/3053926
89.
VasilievP. (2013). Testing orthodox utilitarian and extrajudicial determinants of incarceration in the U.S. at the state-level, 1980–2005 [PhD Dissertation]. University of Nevada.
90.
VerbekeG.MolenberghsG. (2000). Linear mixed models for longitudinal data. Springer.
91.
VermaA. (2016). A turning point in mass incarceration? Local imprisonment trajectories and decarceration under california’s realignment. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 664(1), 108–135. https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716215614311
ZengZ. (2018). Jail inmates in 2016. Bureau of Justice Statistics.
99.
ZhangY.MaxwellC. D.VaughnM. S. (2009). The impact of state sentencing policies on the U.S. prison population. Journal of Criminal Justice, 37(2), 190–199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2009.02.012
100.
ZimringF. E. (2010). The scale of imprisonment in the United States: Twentieth century patterns and twenty-first century prospects. Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, 100(3), 1225–1246.
