Short-Term Temporal Clustering of Police-Reported Violent Offending and Victimization

Abstract

Objectives:

To examine short-term associations between offending and victimization using daily data on criminal offenses. We also examine the within-individual association between several types of offenses and victimization and see whether incidents closer together in time are more likely reflect revenge motives.

Method:

We use total data on all victims (n = 88,106) and offenders (n = 60,584) in police-reported assaults in Finland during 2007–2009 to examine temporal clustering of the two outcomes. Monthly panel data (n = 4,886) on offending and victimization are analyzed with fixed-effects regression models, while revenge motives are derived from detailed case descriptions (n = 299).

Results:

The risk of violent victimization is higher in months following criminal offending. Although the offending rates directly before and after victimization are low on absolute terms, we find that these rates are higher around the time of victimization. Violent offenses closer to victimization incidents are more likely to include the same parties in opposite roles.

Conclusions:

Criminal offending increases the risk of victimization in a state-dependent matter. Closer analysis of situational and motivational dynamics of victimization and offending requires temporally detailed data, as a substantial share of the victim–offender overlap is explained by incidents that take place on the same day, complicating the analysis of the temporal sequence of those events.