The development of mass incarceration in the United States has occurred unevenly across American states. Prior time series, fixed effect, and case study research have failed to fully illuminate the determinants of incarceration rate change in states with varying patterns of growth. As a supplement to previously utilized approaches, the present research uses group-based trajectory modeling to consider patterns of incarceration rate growth across 48 U.S. states in relation to crime, political, structural, and institutional variables. In order to account for periodicity, group-based trajectory models of state incarceration rates are estimated separately for 1977–1990, 1990–2000, and 2000–2010. Findings suggest that political and economic factors vary in their relationships to incarceration growth over time and that, controlling for crime, the percentage of young Black males in state populations was the most consistent predictor of incarceration rate growth, particularly among high incarcerating states from 2000 to 2010. The implications of these findings for “the criminology of mass incarceration” are considered.
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