Policy Implications of the Impact of Continuing Mortality Declines on Support Systems for the Elderly in the United States

Abstract

The continuing aging of the total and elderly populations in the United States has important public policy implications. The most accurate population projections available must be used in order to plan effectively for the future needs of the elderly. In the past, the "official "population projections used for planning purposes have repeatedly underestimated the size and aging of the elderly population, largely because of their failure to anticipate the continuation or acceleration of mortality declines. This article points out the significant differences in the age, sex, and race structure offuture U. S. elderly populations depicted under the Series 14, "middle mortality, "and the Series 05, "low mortality, "projections. The implications are discussed, including the consideration of factors that may make planning pitfalls worse than expected by the most concerned experts, and those that may positively mitigate the effects of larger and older elderly populations in the future.

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