Abstract
A trend towards the concentration of elderly people in certain states and counties favored for retirement has been evident in recent decades. The concentration is pro duced in part by long distance migrations around the age of retirement and con siderable practical interest lies in reliable projections of these moves. Most projections at present are based on the future size of large aggregates of the national population, often the entire elderly population. This article shows that long-distance retirement migration is particularly likely for people in their sixties and that projections of this cohort diverge substantially those for the retired population. It is also clear that the volume of long-distance migrations will be influenced by economic conditions. More sensitive projections of migration gains to state and county populations should therefore be based on a more detailed examination of migration differentials and cohort projections.
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