Abstract
Understanding the factors associated with care expectations among older migrants is important for policies promoting successful aging in migration contexts. Using survey data from 602 older migrants aged 50 and older in urban China, this study employed binary and multinomial logistic regressions to examine individual, family, and community correlates. Urban hukou (i.e., household registration) status was positively associated with aging-in-place preference. In contrast, grandparenting was negatively associated with aging-in-place preference in the host city. Having only one child was negatively associated with informal care intentions. Greater access to community services and stronger intergenerational relationships were positively associated with relying on children for future care. These results reveal a pattern of negotiation around care and mobility among aging migrants. Strengthening community-based support, reducing structural barriers to care, and supporting intergenerational resources may better meet the needs of aging migrants and their families.
• Older migrants with stronger intergenerational relationships were more likely to expect to rely on their children for future care needs, while grandparenting was negatively associated with aging-in-place preference in the host city. • Having only one child was negatively associated with informal care intentions. • Higher participation in community activities was positively associated with settlement intentions and with both formal and informal care preferences.
• Develop grandparenting support programs (e.g., respite services and flexible childcare assistance) to alleviate care burdens and better support older migrants’ care expectations. • Pilot individualized care-planning consultations for older migrants with one child, offering concrete referrals to community care, home care, and support networks. • Design integration-focused community programs that combine neighborhood orientation (e.g., local tours and introductions to key services) with regular community activities for older migrants.What This Paper Adds
Applications of Study Findings
Introduction
China has witnessed a rapid population aging process alongside large-scale internal migration among older adults. In 2018, approximately 18 million older people were internal migrants, with nearly half relocating to large cities to reunite with adult children, driven by filial piety norms and past family planning policies (National Health Commission, 2019). Such family-oriented migration has become increasingly common, particularly in East Asian societies, where intergenerational co-residence and caregiving obligations strongly shape relocation decisions (Bai et al., 2024a; Chiu & Ho, 2023). Many older Chinese migrants assume grandparenting roles to support their adult children’s employment and childcare needs within competitive urban labor markets (Bai et al., 2024a).
Migration in later life is often a stressful and complex transition (Da & Garcia, 2015). Older migrants may simultaneously adapt to new environments while anticipating care needs amid declining functional abilities. Proactive preparation for future care needs can help mitigate these stressors (Bai et al., 2022). Across cultural and policy contexts, later-life care arrangements vary from informal family support to formal institutional services (Song et al., 2017), with family care remaining especially important for older adults aging away from their home countries (Shrestha et al., 2024). Although research increasingly addresses amenity-led and return migration behaviors in later life (Gustafson, 2008; Zhan et al., 2024), less is known about how older people migrating for family reunification anticipate and negotiate future care and support before actual settlement decisions are made. Such moves may reflect aging-in-place negotiations shaped by trans-sited familyhood and care circulation.
Recent healthcare and welfare reforms in China have facilitated aging in place among older migrants by easing institutional barriers. For example, national medical insurance restrictions have been relaxed to improve healthcare access regardless of location (e.g., Guangzhou Internet Information Office, 2021; Healthcare Security Bureau of Shenzhen Municipal, 2025). Similarly, simplified household registration (hukou) transfer procedures have enabled family reunification for aging parents joining adult children in urban areas (e.g., Public Security Bureau of Shenzhen Municipality, 2017; The People’s Government of Guangzhou Municipality, 2019). Despite these advances and enduring cultural norms of intergenerational proximity and filial piety, limited research has examined older migrants’ intended care arrangements and settlement preferences in response to changing family and policy environments. Acknowledging how older migrants envision their future care is essential for developing targeted policies and services that support both older migrants and their families.
Drawing on the ecology of aging framework, aging in place refers to older adults’ preference to remain in familiar environments, encompassing later-life care expectations beyond mere physical location (Hidalgo & Hernández, 2001; Lum et al., 2016; Wahl et al., 2012). The person–environment fit perspective further suggests that such preferences emerge when personal needs align with available environmental resources (Wahl et al., 2012). Earlier research has therefore emphasized individual resources, such as longer residence, institutional access, and income, as key determinants of settlement decisions. Longer residence enables older migrants to adapt to local life, establish routines, build social ties, and reduce uncertainty about remaining in the destination (Massey, 1986; Toruńczyk-Ruiz & Brunarska, 2020). Similarly, studies on internal migrants in China show that hukou status and hukou conversion shape access to public services and psychological integration, which in turn influence settlement intentions (Huang et al., 2018, 2020). More recent work also highlights the role of care resources in mobility decisions, especially the influence of family caregiving and grandchild care on settlement choices (Bai et al., 2024a; Chiu & Ho, 2023). However, existing studies often treat family simply as a source of care, with limited attention to adult children’s circumstances or to the ways intergenerational relations shape settlement intentions. Beyond individual and family factors, community-level resources, including welfare services and community participation, may foster belonging, trust, and place attachment, thereby shaping older migrants’ aging-in-place preferences and settlement intentions (Ciobanu et al., 2017; Hidalgo & Hernández, 2001).
Elder care encompasses a spectrum of medical and non-medical support provided by professionals, family, and friends across home, community, and institutional settings (Robison et al., 2014). Forming intended care arrangements is critical for later-life planning, mitigating aging-related uncertainty (Song et al., 2017; Sörensen & Pinquart, 2001), yet research has primarily focused on individual determinants such as age, socioeconomic status, education, and health (Song et al., 2017; Suntai et al., 2022), with limited attention to intergenerational dynamics (Bai, 2019; Zhou & Bai, 2022). In familistic societies like China, filial piety shapes expectations of children’s caregiving and underpins preferences for co-residence when health declines (Bai et al., 2024b; Zhan et al., 2024). Formal services may be seen as substitutes when older parents wish to avoid overburdening their children (Bai et al., 2020). The concept of “care circulation” suggests that older migrants both give and receive care within translocal families (Baldassar & Merla, 2014). Yet, emerging evidence shows that many older parents provide substantial grandchild care without expecting direct reciprocity, even though some still hope to pass on caregiving norms to the next generation (Bai et al., 2024b). These tensions underscore the need to examine how family dynamics and intergenerational norms shape older migrant adults’ care expectations.
Andersen’s (1995) healthcare utilization model, widely applied to long-term care studies (Bai, 2019; Fu et al., 2017; Suntai et al., 2022), identifies predisposing characteristics, enabling resources, and health-related needs as key determinants of care use. While prior research has emphasized individual factors (e.g., demographics, socioeconomic status, and illness), this study extends the enabling dimension to include family resources and community context for a more contextualized understanding of older migrants’ care expectations. From an ecology of aging perspective, care expectations arise from nested layers of individual attributes, family dynamics, and community environments (Wahl et al., 2012), with family systems theory highlighting adult children’s circumstances as influential (Bai, 2018; Bowen, 1966) and migration contexts underscoring caregiving responsibilities and intergenerational support (Baldassar & Merla, 2014). Accordingly, this study develops a conceptual model (Figure 1) analyzing two outcomes, aging-in-place preferences in the host city and intended care arrangements (informal vs formal; reliance on children vs alternatives), structured across individual (predisposing traits, enabling resources, health needs), family (children-related characteristics, intergenerational circumstances), and community (enabling resources) dimensions among older parents relocating to urban China. Conceptual framework
Methods
Research Design and Study Population
This cross-sectional study was conducted in Shenzhen and Guangzhou, two prominent megacities that serve as key destinations for internal migration flows, particularly older migrants (Qin et al., 2024). Data were collected between September 2023 and January 2024. The targeted population needed to satisfy the following criteria: (i) individuals aged 50 years and older, and (ii) those who migrated after their adult children and live in residential housing in Shenzhen and Guangzhou, ensuring that their initial arrival date was no earlier than that of their children. To ensure representativeness and minimize sampling bias, a multi-stage sampling design was employed. First, four districts in Shenzhen (i.e., Futian, Luohu, Baoan, and Longgang) and five districts in Guangzhou (i.e., Huangpu, Nansha, Baiyun, Tianhe, and Haizhu) were randomly selected based on geographic location and socioeconomic diversity. Subsequently, within each selected district, three to five residential communities were randomly selected to capture various neighborhood contexts. Finally, eligible households were identified through collaboration with community workers and social workers. A total of 721 completed questionnaires were collected.
In China, the hukou system determines access to local welfare services and supports the formation of social networks and a sense of local identity; transferring hukou to the host city signals a realized intention to settle (Huang et al., 2018). To focus on aging-in-place preferences prior to such settlement behavior, individuals who had already transferred their hukou to the host city were excluded from the analysis. After excluding those with local hukou (n = 119), the final sample comprised 602 older migrants. The study was approved by the Ethics Review Board of the first author’s affiliated university, and informed consent was obtained from all participants.
Measurements
Outcomes
Aging-in-place preference was defined as the older migrants’ willingness to settle permanently in the host city during later life. Responses were coded as “1” for “Yes,” “2” for “No,” and “0” for “not decided.”
Intended Care Arrangements were adapted from previous research on Chinese older adults (Song et al., 2017). Respondents were asked to select the option that best reflected their expectation mode of care: (1) move in with and rely on adult children for care; (2) remain at home and rely mainly on the spouse; (3) remain at home and use community-based services (e.g., meal support program for older adults, community-based care services); (4) move to a residential care institution; and (5) have no idea. Options (1) and (2) were coded as “informal care,” options (3) and (4) as “formal care,” and (5) as “undecided.” To further examine older migrants’ reliance on children for future care needs, particularly under Chinese filial piety cultural norms, the first option was further coded as “rely on children,” with all other options as “other arrangements.”
Individual Dimension
Predisposing factors included age (in years), sex (1 = female; 0 = male), migration with spouse (0 = no; 1 = yes), education level (ranging from 1 = primary school and below to 3 = high school and above), hukou status (0 = rural, 1 = urban), residency duration (1 = less than 4 years to 3 = more than 7 years), and migration distance (1 = intraprovincial, 0 = interprovincial).
Enabling resources were assessed by older migrants’ economic conditions and insurance coverage. Older migrants reported their monthly personal income (ranging from 1 = less than C¥1,000 to 3 = more than C¥3,999), medical insurance (0 = no, 1 = yes), and pension (0 = no, 1 = yes).
Health-related needs were assessed through physical health, mental health, and the presence of chronic illness. Physical health was assessed by self-rated health (1 = fair or poor, 0 = excellent). Mental health was measured by the 8-item CES-D scale (Radloff, 1977; Zhao et al., 2024), where respondents rated depressive symptoms in the past week on a 4-point scale (0, never to 3, most of the time). Two positive items were reverse-coded, and total scores (0–24) indicated depressive severity (Cronbach’s α = 0.81). Chronic illness was a binary variable (1 = yes, 0 = no) indicating a diagnosis of any listed chronic condition (e.g., hypertension, diabetes, and heart disease).
Family Dimension
Children-related enabling characteristics included adult children’s sex (1 = female; 0 = male), only-child status (0 = no, 1 = yes), residency duration (1 = less than 6 years to 3 = more than 10 years), house ownership (0 = no, 1 = yes), and hukou transfer status in the host city (0 = no, 1 = yes).
Intergenerational enabling circumstances were assessed through intergenerational relationship quality, grandparenting involvement, and care for their own aging parents. The Intergenerational Solidarity Scale (Bai, 2018; Jin et al., 2015) was used to assess five dimensions, including relational quality, contact frequency, shared activities, support, and attitudinal consensus, through eight items rated on a 5-point scale. The total score ranged from 5 to 40, with higher scores indicating stronger intergenerational solidarity. The scale showed satisfactory internal consistency in this study (Cronbach’s α = 0.73). Additionally, older migrants were asked whether they provided instrumental support to grandchildren in the host city or to their (or their spouses’) aging parents in their hometown (0 = no; 1 = yes).
Community Dimension
Community enabling resources were measured by two indicators: community activity participation and community services benefits. Community activity participation was measured using four items covering three dimensions, namely, social gatherings, community events, and volunteering. These items were adapted from validated studies in Chinese community settings (Lu et al., 2022; Zhu et al., 2019). Responses were rated on a 5-point scale from 1 (never) to 5 (frequently), producing total scores from 4 to 20 with acceptable internal reliability (Cronbach’s α = 0.71). Community service benefits were measured by dichotomous responses (1 = yes, 0 = no) to participation or receipt of the following five services: establishment of a resident health record, free medical checkups, regular home visits by community staff, livelihood assistance, and free health information sessions. The total scores range from 0 to 5. Higher scores indicated access to a wider range of community-based service benefits.
Data Analysis
Descriptive statistics were conducted using SPSS 26 (IBM Corp., 2019) to summarize the characteristics of the respondents. Means and standard deviations were reported for continuous variables, and frequencies and percentages were presented for categorical variables. Multinomial and binary logistic regression analyses were performed with Stata 17 (StataCorp, 2021) to examine the associations between individual, family, and community factors and older migrants’ care expectations, including aging-in-place preferences and intended care arrangements.
In the analysis of care arrangements, the undecided group served as the reference category in multinomial logistic regression, while the other-arrangement group was used as the reference in binary logistic regression models. For aging-in-place preferences, both the undecided and not-wanting-to-remain groups were used as reference categories in multinomial models. Relative risk ratios (RRRs) and odds ratios (ORs), along with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were estimated for all independent variables. Statistical significance was assessed at three levels: p ≤ 0.05, p ≤ 0.01, and p ≤ 0.001. Pearson and Spearman correlation tests were conducted among independent variables to evaluate potential multicollinearity.
Results
Descriptive Results
Descriptive statistics (n = 602)
Regression Analysis
Multinomial Logistic Regression Results on Aging-in-Place Preference
***p < 0.001, **p < 0.01, *p < 0.05.
Older migrants with longer residence duration in the host city (over 7 years) were more likely to prefer aging in the host city (RRR = 2.261, 95% CI [1.235–4.140]). Additionally, having a chronic illness was associated with a higher likelihood of expressing no intention to age in the host city (RRR = 1.802, 95% CI [1.036–3.133]). Interestingly, both middle-income and high-income respondents were more likely to express explicit intentions either to age in the host city or not, in comparison with the undecided option.
Compared with those who did not prefer to age in place, older migrants whose adult children owned housing (RRR = 2.413, 95% CI [1.329–4.382]) or had transferred their hukou to the host city (RRR = 1.936, 95% CI [1.049–3.574]) were more likely to prefer aging in place. In addition, greater participation in community activities was strongly associated with a higher likelihood of preferring to age in place (RRR = 1.259, 95% CI [1.128–1.404]). Finally, older migrants with an urban hukou status (RRR = 1.908, 95% CI [1.018–3.578]), a high school or higher education level (RRR = 2.086, 95% CI [1.038–4.191]), older age (RRR = 1.045, 95% CI [1.000–1.092]), and a residency duration between 4 and 7 years (RRR = 2.325, 95% CI [1.213–4.457]) were more likely to express intentions to age in place.
Multinomial and Logistic Regressions Results on Care Arrangements
***p < 0.001, **p < 0.01, *p < 0.05.
Compared with those who reported other intended care arrangements, older migrants with stronger intergenerational relationships (OR = 1.056, 95% CI [1.007–1.107]) and greater access to community service benefits (OR = 1.186, 95% CI [1.009–1.394]) were more likely to expect reliance on their children for care. However, those caring for their own aging parents were less likely to anticipate relying on their children (OR = 0.612, 95% CI [0.378–0.990]). Older migrants with at least a high school education (OR = 0.530, 95% CI [0.320–0.878]) or with chronic illness (OR = 0.619, 95% CI [0.411–0.933]) were similarly less likely to report reliance on children for future care. In contrast, intraprovincial migrants (OR = 1.926, 95% CI [1.296–2.862]) and older participants (OR = 1.043, 95% CI [1.010–1.077]) were more likely to expect care from their children.
Discussion
This study examined care expectations of older migrants who relocated to live with their adult children in urban China. By jointly analyzing aging-in-place preferences and intended care arrangements, it advances beyond single-outcome approaches to capture the interrelated dynamics of later-life mobility and care expectations. Although grounded in the Chinese context, the findings resonate with other settings in showing that institutional access, family resources, and community engagement jointly shape older migrants’ intentions about where to age and what care to seek. In particular, adult children’s enabling resources, intergenerational relationship quality, and access to local community services are closely linked to aging-in-place and care preferences. Together, these results extend the ecology of aging and Andersen’s healthcare utilization model, illustrating how intergenerational and community factors structure anticipated person–environment fit in the nexus of aging and migration.
At the family dimension, grandparenting involvement was negatively associated with aging-in-place preferences, while caring for aging parents was linked to a lower desire to settle in the host city and to reduce expectations of receiving care from children. These findings offer a partial qualification of intergenerational reciprocity perspectives, which emphasize mutual exchange between parents and children (Baldassar & Merla, 2014; Silverstein et al., 2025). One plausible explanation is that older parents may provide care without anticipating equivalent returns, possibly motivated by altruism and a desire not to burden their children within a familistic cultural context (Bai et al., 2024a; Zhan et al., 2024). These results extend existing literature by showing that anticipated care is not uniformly reciprocal or symmetrical, but may be shaped by distinct moral logics and cultural expectations. In contrast, stronger intergenerational relationships were positively associated with expectations of relying on children for care, consistent with earlier findings (Bai, 2019) and theories of intergenerational solidarity and reciprocity, which posit that emotional closeness and shared values foster mutual caregiving (Silverstein et al., 2012, 2025).
Children-related enabling factors play significant roles in influencing care expectations. Older migrants whose children owned housing or held local hukou registration were more likely to express settlement intentions. These results advance existing literature by demonstrating that adult children’s resources and local institutional access may shape older parents’ aging-in-place preferences. Conversely, having only one child was negatively associated with informal care arrangements intentions. This pattern contributes to a more differentiated understanding of familistic norms by suggesting that they do not necessarily sustain strong family-based care expectations in later life. Instead, it indicates that smaller kin networks may constrain the availability of family care and reduce confidence in informal support, consistent with emerging evidence that limited family size weakens reliance on kin-based care in old age (Zhou & Kang, 2025). Taken together, these findings contribute to the literature by showing that children’s material and institutional advantages, as well as family size, are important determinants of older migrants’ settlement and care expectations.
At the community dimension, higher participation in community activities was associated with stronger settlement intentions. This aligns with previous research on older transnational migrants in American and European contexts and with place attachment and social integration theories, which suggest that stronger local ties foster attachment to place and increase the desire to remain there (Hidalgo & Hernández, 2001; Massey, 1986; Toruńczyk-Ruiz & Brunarska, 2020). This study further shows that community participation is also associated with older migrants’ care arrangement intentions. Through social participation, older migrants may gain better access to local services and information, broadening their awareness of available care options and supporting more informed decision-making (Andersen, 1995; Tsai et al., 2015). Moreover, greater use of community services was linked to stronger reliance on children, reinforcing recent evidence that older adults in familistic contexts view community-based care as complementary to, rather than a substitute for, family support (Bai, 2019; Fu et al., 2017). Taken together, these findings extend the ecology of aging and Andersen’s healthcare utilization model by showing that community engagement shapes both aging-in-place preferences and intergenerational care dynamics in later life.
At the individual dimension, urban hukou status was associated with settlement intentions, which aligns with previous evidence (Huang et al., 2020). Urban hukou confers enhanced welfare entitlements, greater mobility capacity, and familiarity with urban environments (Huang et al., 2018, 2020), thereby increasing older migrants’ confidence in long-term urban residence and underscoring how institutional access shapes later-life mobility across unequal migration regimes. By contrast, chronic illness was associated with stronger non-settlement preferences and lower intentions to seek either formal care or help from children. This pattern may reflect worries about healthcare access in the host city and concerns about avoiding burdening family members. Similar patterns appear among older non-European migrants, where limited welfare access fosters ambivalent aging-in-place arrangements (Shrestha et al., 2024). These findings have implications for research and policymaking aimed at reducing barriers to settlement and enhancing later-life well-being among aging migrant populations across contexts.
Similarly, longer residence (>7 years) was associated with a higher likelihood of expressing settlement intentions relative to the undecided, while moderate duration (4–7 years) strengthened intentions versus non-settlers. This pattern is consistent with the ecology of aging perspective, which posits that sustained person–environment transactions foster place attachment and support aging in place (Hidalgo & Hernández, 2001; Massey, 1986).
This study has several limitations. First, the cross-sectional design limits causal inference regarding the observed associations. Bidirectional relationships between the identified factors and settlement intentions cannot be ruled out. In particular, interpretations concerning care circulation and intergenerational reciprocity, including the negative associations between grandparenting and aging-in-place preference and between only-child status and informal care intentions, are based on cross-sectional associations rather than observed care exchanges. Longitudinal research tracking actual caregiving behaviors over time and residential decisions would be needed to establish temporal ordering and more directly evaluate the directionality of these associations. Second, the data do not capture actual settlement behaviors or subsequent care decisions, limiting insights into the correspondence between stated preferences and realized outcomes. Longitudinal and mixed-methods design would specifically address whether predisposing factors (e.g., education and income) predict sustained intentions over time and how gaps between preferences and decisions evolve amid changing circumstances like family dynamics or policy shifts. Third, the sample, drawn from urban areas and focused on older parents migrating to live with their adult children, limits generalizability. Future research should include diverse migrant profiles, such as older adults migrating independently or for economic and health reasons, and cover different regional contexts to better reflect the heterogeneity of older migrants’ experiences.
Conclusion and Implications
This study advances understanding of how individual, family, and community factors shape the care expectations of older migrants who relocate to live with their adult children in urban China. By jointly examining preferences for aging in place and intended care arrangements, the findings reveal a complex interplay among socioeconomic resources, welfare entitlements, intergenerational relationships, familial care circulation, and community participation. Recognizing older migrants’ care expectations, encompassing both relocation intentions and preferred care arrangements, provides valuable insights for developing inclusive aging and migration policies that accommodate diverse care preferences. First, given that community activity participation was positively associated with care expectations, local governments and community organizations could invest in neighborhood-based programs that facilitate older migrants’ social integration and reduce their sense of community exclusion. Second, as intergenerational relationship quality was significantly associated with care expectations, social services could prioritize support mechanisms that strengthen parent–child relationships, such as accessible counseling and family support services for migrant households. Third, policymakers could further ease hukou barriers by allowing older migrants access to local healthcare facilities while expanding affordable community-based and residential care options in migrant-heavy areas. These steps would expand care choices, reduce adult children’s burdens, and promote intergenerational solidarity and social integration.
Footnotes
Acknowledgment
The authors would also like to thank social work stations in Shenzhen and Guangzhou for assisting with the data collection work.
Ethical Considerations
The study received approval from the Ethics Review Board of the first author’s affiliated University (HSEARS20230628002), and written consent for participation was obtained from all subjects.
Author Contributions
R.K. contributed to the data collection, research design, data analysis, manuscript drafting, and revision. J.-J.Z. contributed to the study design and critically reviewed and amended the manuscript of the study.
Funding
The authors disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This study was supported by the research student funding from the Department of Applied Social Sciences at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University.
Declaration of Conflicting Interests
The authors declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.
Data Availability Statement
The data presented in this study are available from the first author upon reasonable request.