With rising life expectancy at birth and declining mortality rates, analyzing demographic and epidemiological factors is key to understanding differing trends and identifying areas for improvement. This study examines age-specific contributions to life expectancy differences across the European region. Arriaga’s life expectancy decomposition method is applied to country-specific abridged life tables for 53 countries to compare changes in life expectancy between two 20 year periods (1980–1999 vs. 2000–2019). This decomposition analysis reveals a shift in age-specific contributions—before 2000, gains were primarily driven by reductions in infant and child mortality, whereas after 2000, older age groups (70+) became the dominant contributors in over half of the countries. As population aging accelerates across Europe, a life-course approach is essential to not only extend life expectancy but also ensure those additional years are lived in good health, reducing inequalities and supporting demographic transitions.
AburtoJ. M.van RaalteA. (2018). Lifespan dispersion in times of life expectancy fluctuation: The case of central and Eastern Europe. Demography, 55(6), 2071–2096. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-018-0729-9
2.
ArriagaE. E. (1984). Measuring and Explaining the Change in Life Expectancies. Demography, 21(1), 83–96.
3.
AugerN.FeuilletP.MartelS.LoE.BarryA. D.HarperS. (2014). Mortality inequality in populations with equal life expectancy: Arriaga’s decomposition method in SAS, Stata, and excel. Annals of Epidemiology, 24(8), 575–580.e1. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annepidem.2014.05.006
4.
BobakM.MarmotM. (1996). EDUCATION & DEBATE east-west mortality divide and its potential explanations: proposed research agenda. In BRA (312). BMJ.
5.
BongaartsJ. (2005). Long-range trends in adult mortality: Models and projection methods. Demography, 42(1), 23–49. https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.2005.0003
6.
Canudas-RomoV. (2008). The modal age at death and the shifting mortality hypothesis. Demographic Research, 19(30), 1179–1204. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2008.19.30
7.
CheungS. L. K.RobineJ.-M. (2007). Increase in common longevity and the compression of mortality: The case of Japan. Population Studies, 61(1), 85–97. https://doi.org/10.1080/00324720601103833
8.
ChristensenK.DoblhammerG.RauR.VaupelJ. W. (2009). Ageing populations: The challenges ahead. In Lancet (Vol. 374, pp. 1196–1208). Elsevier B.V. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61460-4
9.
EgglestonK. N.FuchsV. R. (2012). The new demographic transition: Most gains in life expectancy now realized late in life. The Journal of Economic Perspectives: A Journal of the American Economic Association, 26(3), 137–156. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.26.3.137
10.
HoJ. Y.HendiA. S. (2018). Recent trends in life expectancy across high income countries: Retrospective observational study. BMJ, 362(1), Article k2562. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.k2562
KaranikolosM.AdanyR.McKeeM. (2017). The epidemiological transition in Eastern and Western Europe: A historic natural experiment. European Journal of Public Health, 27(suppl_4), 4–8. https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckx158
13.
MathersC. D.StevensG. A.BoermaT.WhiteR. A.TobiasM. I. (2015). Causes of international increases in older age life expectancy. Lancet (London, England), 385(9967), 540–548. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60569-9
14.
NaghaviM.OngK. L.AaliA.AbabnehH. S.AbateY. H., et al. (2024). Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The Lancet, 403(10440), 2100–2132. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00367-2
15.
OuelletteN.BourbeauR. (2011). Changes in the age-at-death distribution in four low mortality countries: A nonparametric approach. Demographic Research, 25(19), 595–628. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2011.25.19
16.
PinheiroV.DevleesschauwerB. (2023). Mind the gap analysis of subnational differences in life expectancy at birth in the EU. European Journal of Public Health, 33(Suppl 2). https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckad160.1701
17.
WangH.NaghaviM.AllenC.BarberR. M.BhuttaZ. A.CarterA.CaseyD. C.CharlsonF. J.ChenA. Z.CoatesM. M.CoggeshallM.DandonaL.DickerD. J.ErskineH. E.FerrariA. J.FitzmauriceC.ForemanK.ForouzanfarM. H.FraserM. S.MurrayC. J. L. (2016). Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. The Lancet, 388(10053), 1459–1544. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31012-1
18.
WHO. (2019). Healthy, prosperous lives for all: The European Health Equity Status Report.
19.
YanezN. D.WeissN. S.RomandJ. A.TreggiariM. M. (2020). COVID-19 mortality risk for older men and women. BMC Public Health, 20(1), 1742. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-020-09826-8
