Abstract
The probability of survival of a uniformly loaded CMC flange is maximized in the presence of uncertainties in the material properties, fabrication process variables, and loading. The effects of uncertainties in primitive variables on the structural response behavior are quantified. The probabilistic optimization is performed by coupling structural optimization with composite mechanics, finite element analysis, and probabilistic methods. It is demonstrated that probabilistic sensitivities can be used to select a reduced set of design variables for optimization. The flange's first three natural frequencies are considered as behavior constraints. The probability of survival is increased by 12% at the end of the optimization process. The termination of the optimization process is dependent on the lower and upper bounds of design variables and behavior constraints. Those bounds are obtained at specified probabilities defining the optimization feasible region. The computational methodology that is presented in this paper is generic and can be applied to perform reliability and risk assessment of other types of structures.
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