A probabilistic progressive failure analysis method is opposed to estimate the ultimate strength failure probability of composite structures by combining the system reliability method with deterministic progressive failure analysis. Ply-level failure modes such as matrix cracking, fiber breakage and delamination, are considered. Probabilistically dominant ply-level failure sequences leading to overall system failure are identified using branch and bound method. The system failure probability is estimated through the union of significant failure sequences. The method is formulated in the context of three-dimensional finite element analysis of composite structures, using the first-order shear deformation theory.
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