The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is part of a 50-year process of trade liberalization in the United States. From the end of the Civil War through World War II, however, average tariff rates were high by historical standards. The article explores the impact of “free trade” on regional economic performance—specifically, the pace of economic convergence between the American South and the rest of the United States. Econometric analysis suggests that trade liberalization speeded up convergence. Based on the authors' results, it is predicted that, on average, the South will benefit from NAFTA, although there may be some adverse distributional consequences.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Atack, J.
, & Passell, P. (1994). A new economic view of American history. New York: Norton.
2.
Bils, M.
(1984). Tariff protection and production in the early U.S. cotton textile industry. Journal of Economic History, 44, 1033-1046.
3.
Chaplin, J. E.
(1991). Cotton. In E. Foner & J. A. Garraty (Eds.), The reader's companion to American history (pp. 240-242). Boston: Houghton Mifflin.
4.
Chaplin, J. E.
(1995). Climate and southern pessimism: The natural history of an idea, 1500-1800. In L. J. Griffin & D. H. Doyle (Eds.), The South as an American problem (pp. 57-82). Athens: University of Georgia Press.
5.
Cobb, J. C.
(1984). Industrialization and southern society, 1877-1984. Chicago: Dorsey.
6.
Crucini, M. J.
(1994). Sources of variation in real tariff rates: The United States, 1900-1940. American Economic Review, 84, 732-743.
7.
David, P. A.
(1970). Learning by doing and tariff protection: A reconsideration of the case of the ante-bellum United States cotton textile industry. Journal of Economic History, 30, 521-601.
8.
Degler, C.
(1977). Place over time: The continuity of southern distinctiveness. Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Press.
9.
Engerman, S. L.
(1971). Some economic factors in southern backwardness in the nineteenth century. In J. F. Kain & J. R. Meyer (Eds.), Essays in regional economics (pp. 279-306). Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
10.
Fite, G. C.
(1984). Cotton fields no more: Southern agriculture, 1865-1980. Lexington: University Press of Kentucky.
11.
Fogel, R.
, & Engerman, S. (1974). Time on the cross: The economics of American Negro slavery. Boston: Little, Brown.
12.
Genovese, E. D.
(1965). The political economy of slavery: Studies in the economy and society of the slave South. New York: Vintage.
13.
Genovese, E. D.
(1969). The world the slaveholders made: Two essays in interpretation. New York: Vintage.
14.
Gispen, K.
(Ed.). (1990). What made the South different?Jackson: University Press of Mississippi.
15.
Griffin, L.
(1995). Why was the South a problem to America? In L. J. Griffin & D. H. Doyle (Eds.), The South as an American problem (pp. 10-32). Athens: University of Georgia Press.
16.
Griffin, L. J.
, & Doyle, D. H. (Eds.). (1995). The South as an American problem. Athens: University of Georgia Press.
17.
Griffin, L. J.
, & Isaac, L. (1992). Recursive regression and the historical use of “Time” in time-series analysis of historical process. Historical Methods, 25, 166-179.
18.
Harley, K.
(1990). The antebellum tariff: Structure and welfare (Working paper). University of Western Ontario.
19.
Henderson, V.
(1993). Some favorable impacts of a U.S.-Mexico free trade agreement on U.S. urban employment. In P. Garber (Ed.), The Mexico-U.S. free trade agreement (pp. 129-161). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
20.
Isaac, L. W.
, & Griffin, L. J. (1989). Ahistoricism in time-series analyses of historical process: Critique, redirections, and illustrations from U.S. labor history. American Sociological Review, 54, 873-890.
21.
James, J.
(1978). The welfare effects of the antebellum tariff: A general equilibrium analysis. Explorations in Economic History, 15, 231-256.
22.
Key, V. O.
(1949). Southern politics in state and nation. New York: Knopf.
23.
Krugman, P.
, & Hanson, G. (1993). Mexico-U.S. free trade and the location of production. In P. Garber (Ed.), The Mexico-U.S. free trade agreement (pp. 163-186). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
24.
Margo, R. A.
(1990). Race and schooling in the South, 1880-1950: An economic history. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
25.
Margo, R. A.
(1995). The South as an economic problem: Fact or fiction? In D. Doyle & L. Griffin, (Eds.), The South as an American problem (pp. 164-180). Athens: University of Georgia Press.
26.
Metzler, L.
(1949). Tariffs, the terms of trade, and the distribution of national incomes. Journal of Political Economy, 57, 1-29.
27.
National Emergency Council
. (1938). Report on the economic conditions of the South. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.
28.
Oakes, J.
(1982). The ruling race: A history of American slaveholders. New York: Vintage.
29.
Oakes, J.
(1990). Slavery and freedom: An interpretation of the old South. New York: Knopf.
30.
Pincus, J. J.
(1977). Pressure groups and politics in antebellum tariffs. New York: Columbia University Press.
31.
Pope, C.
(1972). The impact of the antebellum tariff on income distribution. Explorations in Economic History, 9, 375-421.
32.
Ransom, R. L.
, & Sutch, R. (1979). Growth and welfare in the American South of the nineteenth century. Explorations in Economic History, 16, 207-236.
33.
Reed, J. S.
(1986). The enduring South: Subcultural persistence in mass society. Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press.
34.
Sterngold, J.
(1995, October 9). In NAFTA's complex tradeoff some jobs lost, others gained. The New York Times, section A.
35.
Taussig, F.
(1967). Tariff history of the United States. New York: A. Kelley.
36.
U.S. Bureau of the Census
. (1975). Historical statistics of the United States. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.
37.
Weiner, J. M.
(1986). Class structure and economic development in the American South. 1865-1955. American Historical Review, 84, 970-992.
38.
Woodman, H. D.
(1968). King Cotton and his retainers: Financing and marketing the cotton crop of the South, 1800-1925. Lexington: University of Kentucky Press.
39.
Woodman, H. D.
(1987). Economic reconstruction and the rise of the new South, 1865-1900. In J. Boles & E. T. Nolen (Eds.), Interpreting southern history: Historiographical essays in honor of Sanford W. Higginbotham (pp. 254-307). Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Press.
40.
Wright, G.
(1977). Cotton competition and the post bellum recovery of the American South. Journal of Economic History, 34, 610-635.
41.
Wright, G.
(1978). The political economy of the cotton South: Households, markets, and wealth in the nineteenth century. New York: Norton.
42.
Wright, G.
(1986). Old South, new South: Revolutions in the southern economy since the Civil War. New York: Basic Books.
43.
Wright, G.
(1987). The economic revolution in the South. Economic Perspectives, 1, 161-178.
