Two scenarios, one optimistic and one pessimistic, contrast the effects of the New Economy. The optimistic scenario assumes that a “leading edge” of women and minorities will be recruited for new and better jobs. Persistence of the traditional labor force position of women and minorities generates the pessimistic scenario. The two scenarios are used to derive three predictions about the number and content of jobs in the New Economy and the demographic composition of those employed. Data on the composition of growing and declining occupations suggest that the pessimistic scenario is more likely. Yet employment outcomes appear to depend crucially upon management decisions and organizational issues.
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