The Chaotic Behavior of Foreign Exchange Rates

Abstract

This paper explores the use of a measure of chaotic behavior, the correlation dimension, in explaining the unpredictable fluctuations in foreign exchange rates. The resulting calculations indicate that the Singapore dollar has a smaller correlation dimension than four European currencies, consistent with the view that the Singapore dollar is a highly managed currency. We also utilize the correlation dimension to determine the impact of the stock market crash of October 19, 1987 on the five currencies. The four European currencies exhibit a statistically significant decrease in their correlation dimensions, while the Singapore dollar displays no significant change. This is consistent with a hypothesis of a an intervention in the management of the European currencies.