Metropolitan Poverty: The Case of New York City

Abstract

This study serves two purposes. First, it demonstrates a method of estimating and projecting annual poverty at sub-national levels. Data obtained from decennial censuses provide the benchmarks from which poverty is estimated and projected for various demographic groups. Projections are based upon curvilinear trends of rates and counts for each group. The methodology can be easily applied in a variety of jurisdictional settings and levels.

The second objective is to provide a specific portrait of poverty by demographic group within the New York City metropolitan region. The evidence indicates a substantial increase over the next decade both in the incidence of poverty and in the number of impoverished residents. There will also be major shifts among population segments in their shares of total area poverty.