Changes in the Character of the U.S. Business Cycle

Abstract

The internal dynamics of the United States business cycle have changed from the period of the mild fluctuations of the 1950s and 1960s to thedepressed and crisis-ridden 1970s and 1980s. The article notes changes in the behavior of consumer demand, investment, the rate of exploitation, profit rates, consumer debt, interest rates, and business debt. One finding is that problems of demand and realization were less important in the earlier period than in the later period. Also, the earlier period shows many more series leading the cycle and turning rather slowly, whereas these key series often turned sharply at the peaks and troughs in the severe downturns of the 1970s and 1980s.