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Abstract

This paper examines the hypothesis that the degree of synchronization of movements of output in the advanced capitalist countries increased in the 1970s relative to earlier years. Two types of statistical tests are employed: one set of tests focuses on the relations between pairs of economies, measuring the frequency of their joint upward or downward movement; the other set of tests, based on multiple regression analysis, examines relations among several economies. The tests offer considerable-but not unqualified-support for the basic hypothesis, and they also provide some insights on possible causes of increased synchronization. The paper notes that, while increased synchronization is one aspect of growing international interdependence, synchronization is affected differently by different aspects of the economic ties among nations. The paper concludes with the suggestion that there is a connection between the synchronization phenomenon and the nature of the current economic crisis.

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Interdependence and Instability: Do the Levels of Output in the Advanced Capitalist Countries Increasingly Move Up and Down Together?

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