Constraints on policy autonomy structurally stem from uneven capitalist development and pre-date neoliberalism, but their degree of restrictiveness varies depending on the balance of power among major states and the nature of their dominant classes. The analysis of China’s overseas development finance (CODF) reveals how its contender state-society complex relaxes external constraints on industrial policy autonomy. CODF expands finance for underfunded sectors, allows performance requirements, prioritizes the public sector, relaxes macroeconomic policies, and institutes a long-term derisking approach. It creates space for Southern countries’ political agency and terrain to grow a counterhegemonic historical bloc to transcend US-led (neo)liberal order. Still, the realization of CODF’s potential is contingent on political configurations of beneficiary countries and on the emergence of popular national forces capable of addressing the legacies of neoliberalism.
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