The Distribution of Power and the Inflation-Unemployment Relationship in the United States: A Post-Keynesian Approach

Abstract

This paper presents a theoretical explanation for the enigmatic discontinuity of the relationship between inflation and unemployment that has registered the U.S. economy since the early 1950s onwards. I argue that by distinguishing between two different historical episodes after World War II, the Golden Age and the Age of Decline, some insights in the Phillips curve puzzle can be gained and the analysis helps us to substantiate the existence of both downward sloping and upward sloping species of the curve. The regime change is illustrated here by building on a commonly used Post-Keynesian model of distribution and growth, which is enhanced to allow for an inflation process based on a conflicting claims approach and a growth rate form of Okun’s law. The model shows that the long-run Phillips curve can be either downward-sloping or upward-sloping, conditioned to the distribution of market power between business and labor.