Aggregate variations in average children ever born and parity progression ratios
across counties in New York, as reflected in the state census of 1865, show that while some of the
inter-areal variation is due to differences in age structure and marital status, social characteristics
of the counties are also quite important. In particular, housing values or living standards strongly
depress the probability of additional births. This finding ties in well with other studies of the
correlates of low fertility in nineteenth-century France and Massachusetts. The present study also
finds that the decision to have a first child (not to be childless) has some different areal correlates
than the decision to proceed from a moderate to large family; in particular, areal emphasis on
schooling and Baptist religious affiliation are associated with high childlessness. Some previously
emphasized social causes of the American decline, such as the shortage of available farmland, are
found to be unimportant in New York State when other variables are included in the analysis.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Bash, Wendell H.1963. "Changing Birth Rates in Developing America: New York State, 1840-1875." Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly41: 161-182.
2.
_______. 1965. "Differential Fertility in Madison County, New York, 1865 ." Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly33: 161-186.
3.
Caldwell, John C.1976. "Toward a Restatement of Demographic Transition Theory ." Population and Development Review2: 321-366.
4.
Coale, Ansley J., and Roy Treadway.1986. "A Summary of the Changing Distribution of Overall Fertility, Marital Fertility, and the Proportion Married in the Provinces of Europe." Pp. 31-181 in The Decline of Fertility in Europe, edited by Ansley J. Coale and Susan Cotts Watkins.Princeton: Princeton University Press.
5.
Cross, Whitney R.1950. The Burned-Over District: The Social and Intellectual History of Enthusiastic Religion in WesternNew York, 1800-1850. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.
6.
Easterlin, Richard A., George Alter, and Gretchen Condran.1978. "Farm and Farm Families in Old and New Areas: The Northern States in 1860." Pp. 22-84 in Family and Population in Nineteenth-Century America, edited by T.K. Hareven and M. A. Vinovskis.Princeton: Princeton University Press.
7.
Foner, Eric.1970. Free Soil, Free Labor, Free Men: The Ideology of the Republican Party Before the Civil War. New York: Oxford University Press.
8.
Forster, Colin, and G.S.L. Tucker.1972. Economic Opportunity and White American Fertility Ratios, 1800-1860. New Haven: Yale University Press.
9.
Guest, Avery M., and Stewart E. Tolnay .1983. "Children's Roles and Fertility: Late Nineteenth-Century Evidence." Social Science History7: 355-380.
10.
Jaffe, A.J.1940. "Differential Fertility in the White Population in Early America." Journal of Heredity31: 407-4.11.
11.
Knodel, John, and Etienne van de Walle .1979. "Lessons From the Past: Policy Implications of Historical Fertility Studies." Population and Development Review5: 217-245.
12.
Leasure, J. William.1982. "La Baisse de la-fecondite aux Etats-Unis de 1800 a 1860 ." Population37: 607-622.
13.
Leet, Don R.1976. "The Determinants of the Fertility Transition in Antebellum Ohio." Journal of Economic History36: 359-378.
14.
Lesthaeghe, Ron.1980. "On the Social Control of Human Reproduction." Population and Development Review36: 359-378.
15.
McQuillan, Kevin.1984. "Modes of Production and Demographic Patterns in Nineteenth-Century France." American Journal of Sociology89: 1324-1346.
16.
Monahan, Thomas P.1951. The Pattern of Age at Marriage in the United States . 2 vols. Philadelphia: Stephenson Brothers.
17.
Osterud, Nancy, and John Fulton.1976. "Family Limitation and Age at Marriage: Fertility Decline in Sturbridge, Massachusetts, 1730-1850." Population Studies30: 481-494.
18.
Richards, Toni.1977. "Fertility Decline in Germany." Population Studies31: 537-553.
19.
Ryan, Mary P.1981. Cradle of the Middle Class: The Family in Oneida County , New York, 1790-1865. New York: Cambridge University Press.
20.
Schapiro, Morton O.1982. "Land Availability and Fertility in the United States. 1760-1870." Journal of Economic History42: 577-600.
21.
Smith, Daniel Scott.1987. " 'Early' Fertility Decline in America: A Problem in Family History." Journal of Family History12: 73-84.
22.
Stem, Mark J.1987. Society and Family Strategy: Erie County, New York, 1850-1920 . Albany: State University of New York Press.
23.
Temkin-Greener, H., and A.C. Swtdlund. 1978.
24.
" Fertility Transition in the Connecticut Valley. 1740-1850." Population Studies32: 27-41.
25.
Tolnay, Stewart E., and Avery M. Guest.1982. "Childlessness in a Transitional Population: The United S tates at the Turn of the Century." Journal of Family History7: 200-219.
26.
Tolnay, Stewart E., Stephan N. Graham, and Avery M. Guest.1982. "Own-Child Estimates of U.S. White Fertility, 1886-1900." Historical Methods15: 127-138.
27.
U.S. Bureau of the Census.1942. Areas of the United States. Washington, D.C.: GPO.
28.
van de Walle, Etienne.1978. "Alone in Europe: The French Fertility Decline until 1850." Pp. 257-288 in Historical Studies of Changing Fertility, edited by Charles Tilly.Princeton : Princeton University Press.
29.
_______ . 1980. "Illegitimacy in France during the Nineteenth Century." Pp. 264-277 in Bastardy and Its Comparative History, edited by Peter Laslett, Karla Oosterveen, and Richard M. Smith.London: Arnold.
30.
Van de Walle, Etienne, and John Knodel.1980. "Europe's Fertility Transition: New Evidence and Lessons for Today's Developing World." Population Bulletin34: 1-43.
31.
Van de Walle, Francine.1980. "Education and the Demographic Transition in Switzerland ." Population and Development Review6: 463-472.
32.
Vinovskis, Maris A.1976. "Socioeconomic Determinants of Interstate Fertility Differentials in the United States in 1850 and 1860." Journal of Interdisciplinary History6: 375-396.
33.
_______ . 1978a. "A Multivariate Regression Analysis of Fertility Differentials among Massachusetts Townships and Regions in 1860." Pp. 225-256 in Historical Studies of Changing Fertility, edited by Charles Tilly.Princeton: Princeton University Press.
34.
________. 1978b. "Marriage Patterns in Mid-Nineteenth-Century New York State: A Multivariate Analysis." Journal of Family History3: 51-61.
35.
_______. 1981. Fertility in Massachusetts from the Revolution to the Civil War. New York: Academic Press .
36.
Wahl, Jenny Bourne.1986. "New Results on the Decline in Household Fertility in the United States from 1750 to 1900." Pp. 391-437 in Long-Term Factors in American Economic Growth, edited by Stanley Engerman and Robert E. Gallman.Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
37.
Yasuba, Yasukichi.1962. Birth Rates of the White Population in the United States, 1800-1860: An Economic Study. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
