The aim of this article is to empirically assess the impact of female decision-making autonomy, educational attainment, and wealth on risks of having low-parity births and fertility preferences in the Republic of Moldova. The empirical analysis uses data from the 2005 Moldova Demographic and Health Survey. Hazard modeling is applied to study the transition to first, second, and third birth, while logistic regression is used to model desire for children. Considered for the first time are female decision-making autonomy measures, indicators that are essential in evaluating premises of gender equity theory. The main focus of the analysis is to assess the relative importance of female decision-making autonomy, education, and wealth for the timing of fertility, odds of having low-parity births, and desired fertility in Moldova.
Prior to 1917, Moldova was part of the Russian Empire. After that it was divided between Romania and Soviet Union. Only after World War II, under the terms of the Paris Peace Treaty of 1947, Romania had to relinquish its part to Soviet power and Moldova became established in its current boundaries as the Moldovan Soviet Socialist Republic, an integral part of the Soviet Union. After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the proclamation of independence by new pro-Western democratic government, the Transdnistria region of Moldova (lying between the left riverbank of the Dniester River and Ukraine) has become and remains a de facto independent state as the consequence of an armed conflict between the constitutional forces and the local separatist government in 1992.
2.
For more on historical changes of fertility in Moldova, see Maria Bulgaru, Oleg Bulgaru, Tomáš Sobotka, and Kryštof Zeman, "Past and Present Population Development in the Republic of Moldova," in New Demographic Faces of Europe, ed. Tomáš Kučera, Olga Kučerová , Oksana Opara, and Eberhard Schaich (Heidelberg, Germany: Springer Verlag, 2000), 221-46.
3.
John Hajnal, "European Marriage Pattern in Perspective," in Population in History: Essays in Historical Demography, ed. David V. Glass and David E. C. Eversley (Chicago: Aldine, 1965), 101-43.
4.
Ansley J. Coale, "Age of Entry into Marriage and the Date of the Initiation of Voluntary Birth Control," Demography 29 (1992): 333-41; Sergei Scherbov and Harrie van Vianen, "Marriage and Fertility in Russia of Women Born between 1900 and 1960: A Cohort Analysis," European Journal of Population 17, no. 3 (2001): 281-94; and Hans-Peter Kohler, Francesco C. Billari, and José Antonio Ortega, "The Emergence of Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe during the 1990s," Population and Development Review 28, no. 4 (2002): 641-80.
5.
Brienna Perelli-Harris , "The Path to Lowest-Low Fertility in Ukraine ," Population Studies59 ( 2005): 55-70.
6.
Bulgaru et al., "Past and Present Population Development"
7.
Calculated from the Moldova Demographic and Health Survey data.
8.
For more on the War of Transnistria, see Jonathan Goodhand, A Synthesis Report: Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Nepal and Sri Lanka (London: University of London Press, 2001); Talia Delgado, Transnistria, the Forgotten Conflict (2005), http://www.brain-storming.info/article.php?ida=70; and Dov Lynch, "Separatist States and Post-Soviet Conflicts," International Affairs 78, no. 4 (2002): 831-48.
9.
Ali M. Mansoor and Bryce Quillin, Migration and Remittances: Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2007); World Bank, Migration and Remittances: Factbook 2009 (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2009); and International Monetary Fund, Country Report No. 08/1139 (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 2008).
10.
International Monetary Fund, Country Report No. 08/1139.
11.
International Monetary Fund, Country Report No. 08/1139.
12.
Mansoor and Quillin, Migration and Remittances.
13.
Brienna Perelli-Harris, "The Influence of Informal Work and Subjective Well-Being on Childbearing in Post-Soviet Russia," Population and Development Review 32 (2006): 729-53; Joshua Goldstein, Wolfgang Lutz, and Sergei Scherbov, "Long-Term Population Decline in Europe: The Relative Importance of Tempo Effects and Generational Length," Population and Development Review 29, no. 4 (2003): 699-707; Miroslav Macura, "Fertility Decline in the Transition Economies 1982-1997: Economic and Social Factors Revisited," Economic Survey of Europe 2000, no. 1 (2000): 189-207; and Wolfgang Lutz, Brian C. O’Neill, and Sergei Scherbov, "Europe’s Population at a Turning Point," Science 299 (2003): 1991-92.
14.
Tomas Frejka , "Determinants of Family Formation and Childbearing during the Societal Transition in Central and Eastern Europe," Demographic Research19, no. 7 (2008): 139.
15.
See, e.g., Leonid E. Darsky, "Quantum and Timing of Birth in the USSR," in Demographic Trends and Patterns in the Soviet Union before 1991, ed. Wolfgang Lutz, Sergei Scherbov, and Andrei Volkov (New York: Routledge, 1993), 57-69; Libor Stloukal, "Changing Patterns of Extramarital Conceptions in the Czech Republic, 1960-1993," Journal of Biosocial Science 29 (1997): 471-89; Marina A. Adler, "Social Change and Declines in Marriage and Fertility in Eastern Germany," Journal of Marriage and the Family 59, no. 1 (1997): 37-49; Nicholas Eberstadt, "Demographic Shocks after Communism: Eastern Germany 1989-1993," Population and Development Review 20, no. 1 (1994): 137-52; James C. Witte and Gert G. Wagner, "Declining Fertility in East Germany after Unification: A Demographic Response to Socioeconomic Change," Population and Development Review 21, no. 2 (1995): 387-97.
16.
Richard A. Easterlin and Eileen M. Crimmins, "Private Materialism, Personal Self-Fulfillment, Family Life and Public Interest: The Nature, Effects, and Causes of Recent Changes in the Values of American Youth," Public Opinion Quarterly 55 (1991): 499-533. Also see Fred C. Pampel and H. Elizabeth Peters, "The Easterlin Effect," Annual Review of Sociology 21 (1995): 163-94.
17.
E.g., Darsky, "Quantum and Timing of Birth"; and Eberstadt, "Demographic Shocks after Communism."
18.
E.g., Perelli-Harris, "Path to Lowest-Low Fertility."
19.
E.g., Sunnee Billingsley, "The Post-Communist Fertility Puzzle ," Population Research and Policy Review (forthcoming); and Hans-Peter Kohler and Iliana Kohler, "Fertility Decline in Russia in the Early and Mid 1990s: The Role of Economic Uncertainty and Labor Market Crises," European Journal of Population18, no. 3 (2002): 233-62.
20.
Kohler and Kohler, "Fertility Decline in Russia."
21.
E.g., Ron Lesthaeghe and John R. Surkyn, "New Forms of Household Formation in Central and Eastern Europe-Are They Related to Newly Emerging Value Orientations?" Economic Survey of Europe 1 (2002): 197-216; Tomáš Sobotka, "Is Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe Explained by the Postponement of Childbearing?" Population and Development Review 30, no. 2 (2004): 195-220; Tomáš Sobotka, Kryštof Zeman, and Vladimíra Kantorová, "Demographic Shifts in the Czech Republic after 1989: A Second Demographic Transition View," European Journal of Population 19, no. 3 (2003): 249-77; Jan M. Hoem, Aiva Jasilioniene, Dora Kostova, and Cornelia Muresan, "The Second Demographic Transition in Selected Countries in Central and Eastern Europe: Union Formation as a Demographic Manifestation," (Working Paper 2007-026, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, 2007); and Sergei V. Zakharov, "Fertility Trends in Russia and the European New Independent States: Crisis or Turning Point?" Population Bulletin 40/41 (1997): 271-90.
22.
Ron Lesthaeghe and Dirk J. Van de Kaa, "Two Demographic Transitions?" [in Dutch], in Population: Growth and Decline, ed. Dirk J. Van de Kaa and Ron Lesthaeghe (Deventer, Netherlands: Van Loghum Slaterus, 1986), 9-25. Also see Ron Lesthaeghe, "The Second Demographic Transition in Western Countries: An Interpretation," in Gender and Family Change in Industrialized Countries, ed. Karen O. Mason and An-Magritt Jensen (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 1995), 17-62; Dirk J. Van de Kaa, "Europe’s Second Demographic Transition," Population Bulletin 42, no. 1 (1987): 1-57; Dirk J. Van de Kaa, "Postmodern Fertility Preferences: From Changing Value Orientation to New Behavior," Population and Development Review 27 (1997): 290-331; and Dirk J. Van de Kaa, "Europe and Its Population: The Long View," in European Populations: Unity in Diversity, ed. Dirk J. Van de Kaa, Henri Leridon, Guiseppe Gesano, and Marek Okóllski (Dordrecht, Netherlands: Kluwer, 1999), 1-49.
23.
Philippe Ariès , "Two Successive Motivations for the Declining Birth Rate in the West," Population and Development Review6, no. 4 ( 1980): 645-50.
24.
It should be noted here that the term second demographic transition is controversial as some theorists see the "second" transition only as a continuation of changes that gave sense to a demographic transition initiated in Europe with the advent of industrialization. See, e.g., Karen Oppenheim Mason, "Gender and Demographic Change: What Do We Know?" in The Continuing Demographic Transition , ed. Gawin W. Jones, Robert M. Douglas, John C. Caldwell, and Rennie M. D’Souza ( Oxford, UK: Clarendon, 1997), 158-82.
25.
Billingsley, "Post-Communist Fertility Puzzle."
26.
Nancy Folbre, "Of Patriarchy Born: The Political Economy of Fertility Decisions," Feminist Studies 9, no. 2 (1983): 261-84; Valerie K. Oppenheimer, "Women’s Rising Employment and the Future of the Family in Industrial Societies," Population and Development Review 20, no. 2 (1994): 293-342; Peter McDonald, "Gender Equity in Theories of Fertility Transition," Population and Development Review 26, no. 3 (2000): 427-39; Peter McDonald, "Gender Equality, Social Institutions and the Future of Fertility," Journal of Population Research 17, no. 1 (2000): 1-16; and Peter McDonald, "Low Fertility and the State: The Efficacy of Policy," Population and Development Review 32, no. 3 (2006): 485-510.
27.
Jean-Claude Chesnais, "Fertility, Family, and Social Policy in Contemporary Western Europe," Population and Development Review22 (1996): 729-39.
28.
McDonald, "Gender Equity in Theories"; and McDonald, "Gender Equality, Social Institutions."
29.
McDonald, "Gender Equity in Theories"; and McDonald, "Gender Equality, Social Institutions."
30.
Cynthia Weber and Ann Goodman, "The Demographic Policy Debate in the USSR," Population and Development Review 7, no. 2 (1981): 279-95; Paul R. Gregory and Robert C. Stuart, Soviet and Post-Soviet Economic Structure and Performance, 5th ed. (New York: HarperCollins, 1994); and Masha Gessen, Dead Again: The Russian Intelligentsia after Communism (London: Verso, 1997).
31.
Bulgaru et al., "Past and Present Population Development."
32.
Sergei Zakharov, "Russian Federation: From the First to Second Demographic Transition," Demographic Research 19 (2008): 907; and Arlie. R. Hochschild, The Second Shift: Working Parents and the Revolution at Home (New York: Viking, 1989).
33.
Livia Sz. Oláh, "Gendering Fertility: Second Births in Sweden and Hungary," Population Research and Policy Review 22, no. 2 (2003): 171-200; Letizia Mencarini and Maria L. Tanturri, "Time Use, Family Role-Set and Childbearing among Italian Working Women," Genus 60, no. 1 (2004): 111-37; Melinda Mills, Letizia Mencarini, Maria L. Tanturi, and Katia Begall, "Gender Equity and Fertility Intentions in Italy and the Netherlands," Demographic Research 18 (2008): 1-26; and Berna Miller Torr and Susan E. Short, "Second Births and the Second Shift: A Research Note on Gender Equity and Fertility," Population and Development Review 30, no. 1 (2004): 109-30.
34.
E.g., Simona Drovandi and Silvana Salvini, "Women’s Autonomy and Demographic Behaviour," Population Review 42, no. 2 (2004): 1-31; Shireen Jejeebhoy, Women’s Education, Autonomy and Reproductive Behaviour: Experience from Developing Countries (New York: Oxford University Press, 1995); Tim Dyson and Mick Moore, "On Kinship Structure, Female Autonomy, and Demographic Behavior in India," Population and Development Review 9, no. 1 (1983): 35-60; Jane S. Jaquette and Kathleen Staudt, "Women, Gender and Development," in Women and Gender Equity in Development Theory and Practice: Institutions, Resources, and Mobilization, ed. Jane S. Jaquette and Gale Summerfield (Durham, NC: Duke University Press, 2006), 17-52; Maureen Woodhall, "Investment in Women: A Reappraisal of the Concept of Human Capital," International Review of Education 19, no. 1 (1973): 9-29.
35.
Dyson and Moore, "On Kinship Structure," 45.
36.
Jen’nan Ghazal Read and Sharon Oselin, "Gender and the Education-Employment Paradox in Ethnic and Religious Contexts: The Case of Arab Americans," American Sociological Review 73 (2008): 296-313; and Theodore W. Schultz, "Investing in People: Schooling in Low Income Countries," Economics of Education Review 8, no. 3 (1989): 219-23.
37.
E.g., GaryS. Becker, Human Capital, 2nd ed. (Chicago : University of Chicago Press, 1975 ); and Jacob Mincer, Schooling, Experience and Earnings ( New York: Columbia University Press, 1974).
38.
Chesnais, "Fertility, Family"; and Stloukal, "Changing Patterns of Extramarital Conceptions."
39.
For more information on the Monte Carlo technique, see Donald B. Rubin, Multiple Imputation for Nonresponse in Surveys (New York: John Wiley, 1987); and Donald B. Rubin, "Multiple Imputation after 18+ Years," Journal of the American Statistical Association 91 (1996): 473-89.
40.
Jejeebhoy, Women’s Education; and Bulgaru et al., "Past and Present Population Development."
41.
Gessen, Dead Again.
42.
For more on the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) wealth index, see Shea O. Rutstein, Wealth versus Expenditure: Comparison between the DHS Wealth Index and Household Expenditures in Four Departments of Guatemala (Calverton, MD: ORC Macro, 1999); and Shea O. Rutstein and Guillermo Rojas, Guide to DHS statistics (Calverton, MD: ORC Macro, 2003).
43.
International Monetary Fund, Country Report No. 08/1139.
44.
James Stevens, Applied Multivariate Statistics for the Social Sciences, 3rd ed. (Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum , 1996).
45.
George E. P. Box and David R. Cox , "An Analysis of Transformations," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society26 ( 1964): 211-43.
46.
Bulgaru et al., "Past and Present Population Development."
47.
For more information, see DHS, Gender (2009), http://www.measuredhs.com/topics/gender/start.cfm.
48.
Ibid.
49.
For more details on the piecewise constant exponential model, see Kazuo Yamaguchi, Event History Analysis, Applied Social Research Methods Series 28 ( Newbury Park, CA: Sage, 1991).
50.
See Mincer, Schooling, Experience and Earnings, for an extensive review of the literature on the subject. 51. N. Krishnaji, "Poverty and Family Size," Social Scientist 9, no. 4 (1980): 22-35.
51.
Becker, Human Capital.
52.
Oppenheimer, "Women’s Rising Employment"; Jejeebhoy, Women’s Education; and Jan M. Hoem and Michaela Kreyenfeld, "Anticipatory Analysis and Its Alternatives in Life-Course Research. Part 1: The Role of Education in the Study of First Childbearing," Demographic Research 15-16 (2006): 461-84.
53.
Van de Kaa, "Europe’s Second Demographic Transition"; Sergei V. Zakharov and Elena I. Ivanova, "Fertility Decline and Recent Population Changes in Russia: On the Threshold of the Second Demographic Transition," in Russia’s Demographic Crisis, ed. Julie DaVanzo and Gwen Farnsworth (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 1996), 36-82.
54.
Read and Oselin, "Gender and the Education-Employment Paradox"; and Schultz, "Investing in People."
