Use of Scenario-Building Transportation Model for Developing Countries

Abstract

Scenario building is a technique used to evaluate a set of alternatives and give policy makers a quick tool for identifying which are politically viable. The transportation system hierarchy prevailing in a large metropolitan area in a developing country is examined using a scenario-building model. The model is bidimensional with two parameters: distance traveled and the value of time of persons using the transportation system. It is applied to metropolitan Madras (population 6 million) in India. Two scenarios are developed: first, using the perceived costs of various modes available in Madras, and second, using costs reflecting the changes that could arise as a result of policy changes. Results suggest that policy needs to be oriented toward promoting the use of non-motorized modes, motorized two-wheelers, and public transit instead of emulating that of developed countries. This model and its results will be useful to decision makers in examining scenarios of their choice.

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Patton

C. V.

, and Sawicki

D. S.

. Basic Methods of Policy Analysis and Planning (2nd ed.). Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 1993.

Pearman

A. D.

Scenario Construction for Transport Planning. Transport Planning and Technology, Vol. 12, 1988, pp. 73–85.

Schnaars

S. P.

How to Develop and Use Scenarios. Long Range Planning, Vol. 20, No. 1., 1987, pp. 105–114.

Koike

, Kuranami

, and Kubota

. Non-Motorized Transport—A Vital Mode for Asia. The Wheel Extended—A Toyota Quarterly Review, No. 90, 1994.

Pappon

A Small Bidimensional Model Describing Universal Displacements. Presented at 6th World Conference on Transport Research, Lyons, France, 1992.

Kuranami

, Bell

D. D.

, and Winston

B. P.

. Planning for Non-Motorized Vehicles—Balancing Transport Modes in Asian Cities. The Wheel Extended—A Toyota Quarterly Review, No. 90, 1994, pp. 11–16.

Political Handbook of the World: 1994–1995. CSA Publications, State University of New York, Binghamton, 1995.

Hensher

D. A.

Review of Studies Leading to Existing Values of Travel Time. In Transportation Research Record 587, TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 1976, pp. 30–41.

Lisco

T. E.

Common Economics of Travel Time Value. In Special Report 149: Behavioral Demand Modeling and Valuation of Travel Time, TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 1974, pp. 103–115.

10.

Hensher

D. A.

The Value of Commuter Travel Time Savings. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 1976, pp. 167–176.

11.

Thomas

T. C.

The Value of Time for Passenger Cars: An Experimental Study of Commuters' Values. Stanford Research Institute, Calif., 1967.

12.

Urban Transport Development with Particular Reference to Developing Countries. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations, 1989.