Multiple-Interval Freeway Traffic Flow Forecasting

Abstract

Freeway traffic flow forecasting will play an important role in intelligent transportation systems. The TRB Committee on Freeway Operations has included freeway flow forecasting in its 1995 research program. Much of the past research in traffic flow forecasting has addressed short-term, single-interval predictions. Such limited forecasting models will not support the development of the longer-term operational strategies needed for such events as hazardous material incidents. A multiple-interval freeway traffic flow forecasting model has been developed that predicts traffic volumes in 15-min intervals for several hours into the future. The nonparametric regression modeling technique was chosen for the multiple-interval freeway traffic flow forecasting problem. The technique possesses a number of attractive qualities for traffic forecasting. It is intuitive and uses a data base of past conditions to generate forecasts. It can also be implemented as a generic algorithm and is easily calibrated at field locations, suiting it for wide-scale deployment. The model was applied at two sites on the Capital Beltway monitored by the Northern Virginia Traffic Management System. The nonparametric regression forecasting model produced accurate short- and long-term volume estimates at both sites.