Statistical Analyses of Temperature and Moisture Effects on Pavement Structural Properties Based on Seasonal Monitoring Data

Abstract

In light of the data collected under the Seasonal Monitoring Program of the Long-Term Pavement Performance Program, the relationship between climatic factors and pavement structural properties is investigated. Using deflection data collected at a seasonal site over the course of 1 year, layer elastic moduli are backcalculated. The correlations between pavement structural properties (represented by layer elastic moduli) and climatic factors (represented by pavement temperature and moisture conditions) are studied using a series of statistical analyses. Bivariate analysis is used to evaluate linear association between pairs of variables. Principal components analysis is used to identify principal constructs of the system. Multiple regression is used to calibrate linear models. Numerical optimization is used to calibrate nonlinear models that correlate backcalculated layer moduli to pavement temperature. The latter models are then used to derive a temperature correction algorithm of backcalculated asphalt concrete elastic modulus.