Using Time Series to Incorporate Seasonal Variations in Pavement Design

Abstract

Analysis of the seasonal monitoring program data of the long term pavement performance program indicated that some pavement structural properties often follow predictable seasonal patterns. Time series is a statistical technique that may be used to develop periodic functions to predict the values of such properties as a function of time. The application of time series technique in characterizing the seasonal variations of pavement structural properties as simulated functions is presented. In addition, the incorporation of such variations in both empirical and mechanistic-empirical methods of flexible pavement design is demonstrated. To this end, a computer program, seasonal variation in pavement design, was written to carry out the required calculations and to facilitate the comparison between empirical and mechanistic-empirical design methods.