Abstract
Pavement management relies heavily on the ability to model and predict pavement condition accurately. The current deterministic deterioration models for use in the mathematical curve-fitting technique are evaluated, and a new universal deterioration model that can be used to improve some obstacles associated with the current models is introduced. The new procedure is applied to a family data file of various pavement sections possessing the same grouping variables. Then the prediction for each section within the family data file is performed by using its position relative to the family prediction curve. Information regarding the condition of the overlaid pavement in the future is needed for performing life-cycle analysis and developing optimal maintenance and rehabilitation strategies. Thus, deterioration curves for overlaid pavements are also needed. However, in some cases the existing data are not sufficient to construct these deterioration curves as a function of both the original pavement structure and the overlay characteristics. Thus, in these cases the deterioration curves are extrapolated from a new model recently obtained in Illinois. In that model the performance function is tied to major engineering parameters such as structural number, traffic load, age, and climatic conditions. The prediction methodology presented is being examined by Israeli pavement management system developers, and their preliminary results are very encouraging.
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