Prediction of Pavement Remaining Life

Abstract

The evaluation of remaining life is necessary to make optimal use of the structural capacity of in-service pavements. It simply represents the useful life left in the pavement until a failure condition is reached. Knowledge of remaining life facilitates decision making in regard to strategies for reconstruction-rehabilitation of roads, thereby leading to the efficient use of existing resources. Several methods proposed or used by various agencies to estimate the remaining lives of pavements are reviewed. They are classified under two categories: functional and structural. Making use of the Mississippi Department of Transportation pavement management system data base, survivor curves are developed for seven classes of flexible pavements with from thin to thick structures. By using these survivor curves a novel method for estimating remaining life is proposed. The reasonableness of the selected methods is examined by putting them to use in calculating the remaining lives of each of eight rigid and flexible pavement sections, all of them from the Mississippi global positioning system sections of the Strategic Highway Research Program–Long-Term Pavement Performance project (LTPP). With the structural details, falling weight deflectometer deflection data, and the distress information compiled from the LTTP information management system data base, the authors use two and four methods for rigid and flexible pavements, respectively, to determine the remaining lives. The remaining lives calculated by two methods for rigid pavements are comparable. Three of four methods for flexible pavements also generated comparable remaining lives. The authors were encouraged by the results and recommend that the survivor curve approach be explored further for network-level remaining life calculations. The reliabilities of various techniques currently available for the remaining life calculation are discussed.