Abstract
The Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 (ISTEA) requires states and metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) to develop long-range transportation plans. These plans must be financially realistic and be based on available revenues. In the past, states and MPOs have not forecast transportation revenues beyond 6 years. The ISTEA requirements prompt the need for new approaches to forecasting revenue. An approach adopted by Washington State in developing its financially constrained 20-year plan for state highways is presented. The methodology predicts a revenue stream based on no changes in revenue sources or levels (called current law). The methodology also forecasts a revenue stream assuming a historical pattern of transportation revenue increases. In Washington State, the current law forecast will fund about one-third of the 20-year needs on state highways. The historical trend forecast will fund about two-thirds of these needs.
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