Integrating Interdependencies of Demand for Public Transportation,Shared Micro-Mobility,and Land Use Within a System of Equations Modeling Framework

Abstract

Traditional and emerging transportation services in the form of public transportation and shared micro-mobility services, respectively, along with land use are typically hinted at as significant determinants of sustainable urban planning. This study evaluates the dynamic interrelationships between the demand for public transportation, shared micro-mobility services, and land use characteristics in a car-centric urban environment using a seemingly unrelated regression and two-stage least squares modeling approach. Beyond empirical findings, the study aims to develop a system-of-equations-framework enabling the estimation of interdependent urban mobility components. By analyzing data at the ZIP code level, the study assesses the extent to which factors such as distance to urban centers, road length, types of land use, the ridership of public transportation, and use of shared bikes affect population density. The results indicate that distance to urban center is negatively influenced by building density. While public transportation ridership is positively associated with building density and service frequency—highlighting the importance of accessible and frequent public transportation in dense areas—shared micromobility usage is found to be lower in such settings. This suggests that shared micromobility plays a more complementary role to public transportation in lower-density areas, where it can help bridge access gaps and extend the reach of fixed-route services. Moreover, the analysis on elasticities shows that road infrastructure influences the impacts of urban sprawl. The provided insights on the dynamics of urban mobility and land use can inform policymakers, highlighting the need of integrating transportation and land use planning on advocating sustainable urban mobility.