A Case Study of Ridership and Equity Implications of All-Day Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority Commuter Rail Service

Abstract

As the COVID-19 pandemic emerged from the acute phase and vaccines became widely available in 2021, transit agencies like the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority (MBTA) faced a daunting challenge of drawing riders back into their systems. Despite systemwide staffing shortages, service disruptions, and ridership patterns that have yet to return to 2019 levels, ridership on MBTA’s Commuter Rail has consistently outperformed the agency’s other services in the current COVID recovery era. In April 2021, as part of a multiyear vision to overhaul the system, MBTA switched from a schedule focused on serving traditional peak-period commuters to providing steady, all-day service modeled on more legible “clockface” departures. This study used regression analysis to show this change was consistent with the Commuter Rail outperforming other modes in ridership recovery, generating over 7,000 average daily weekday boardings and over 9,000 average weekend boardings. Latent class analysis demonstrated that this schedule shift primarily benefited riders traveling for a variety of purposes, rather than just traditional office work. This group, which we referred to as general riders, was more likely to be low-income (household income below $75,000), young (25 or younger), and Hispanic. This research demonstrated the ability of all-day service on Commuter Rail to serve MBTA’s key aims of increasing ridership and providing more equitable, accessible service.