From Low Initial Interest to Electric Vehicle Adoption: “EV Converts” in New York State’s Rebate Program

Abstract

To meet aggressive transportation-electrification goals, electric-vehicle (EV) sales must expand beyond enthusiastic early adopters and deeper into mainstream markets. To support that expansion, this research examined a strategic market segment that points the way: EV adopters who had little to no interest in adopting an EV when they started looking for a new car—or “EV Converts.” It utilized survey responses from 5,216 recipients of New York State’s Drive Clean Rebate, separately examining consumers of plug-in hybrid EVs, Teslas, and non-Tesla battery EVs. Weighted descriptive statistics and logistic regressions were used to identify factors that predict EV Convert status, and dominance analysis was used to rank factors for prioritization. The results were combined into summary profiles for each vehicle category, summarizing their current characteristics and describing top opportunities for reinforcing each segment. Across categories, high-ranking factors associated with increased odds of being an EV Convert included giving relatively less importance to societal factors like energy independence or environmental impacts, lack of consumer awareness of the rebate before the first dealership visit, the essentiality of the rebate to the EV purchase/lease, having no plans to install solar, giving no importance to the desire for the newest technology, and/or identifying as female. Significant factors were ranked and compared across vehicle categories. Recommendations for program design, outreach, and dealer education are provided.