Analyzing the Difference Between Operating Speed and Target Speed Using Mixed-Effect Ordered Logit Model

Abstract

Desired operating speed (target speed) plays an important role in enhancing traffic operations and providing safe mobility to road users. Understanding the difference between vehicles’ operating speed and target speed on arterial roads is important for achieving safer speed that is consistent with the activity generated in the context classified roadways. This paper proposes a mixed-effect ordered logit model to examine the significant exogenous factors that affect the difference between the two speeds. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no existing research has adopted the concept of target speed. Three years of probe vehicle-based data (INRIX speed data) and exogenous variables including traffic and roadway characteristics, land use attributes, and sociodemographic information are utilized in the models. The data include information for around 1,600 roadway segments in Central Florida. The results conclude that 16 variables are significantly associated with the difference between target speed and operating speed including speed limit, volume exposure, shoulder width information, sidewalk and shared path proportions, block length, number of signals, pavement conditions, residential and mixed land use, population density, and percentage of poverty. The results also indicate the effect of different time periods on the response variable. Therefore, different posted speed limits are recommended based on the time of day. Further, the study suggests the roadway measures that should be followed to achieve the desired target speed.