Applying the Maximum Entropy Model to Urban Freight Transportation Planning: An Exploratory Analysis of Warehouse Location in the Belo Horizonte Metropolitan Region

Abstract

In Brazil, neglect and lack of data have complicated urban freight transportation planning. Belo Horizonte is one such example, where the administration’s disregard for urban freight transport has led to multiple negative externalities. Using the maximum entropy method, this study analyzed the influence of urban planning factors on warehouse location in the Belo Horizonte Metropolitan Region. Warehouse location was analyzed using 19 factors, with the results recorded on a map of logistic probabilities concerning locating warehouses. Given this is exploratory research, the model was validated by visual comparison to address the four hypotheses: (i) warehouses tend to be located near roads and railroads; (ii) warehouses tend to be located close to their consumer markets; (iii) warehouses tend to be located in urban areas; and (iv) warehouses tend to be located next to each other, creating clusters. These hypotheses were based on the extant literature and confirmed from observations of the Belo Horizonte Metropolitan Region. The results also demonstrated that the maximum entropy method can suitably model freight transportation in support of urban planning policy.