Probabilistic Situation Assessment for Intelligent Vehicles with Uncertain Trajectory Distribution

Abstract

Situation assessment is crucial for intelligent vehicles, enabling detection of potential risks to dynamic and complex traffic environments. In this paper, we propose a unified framework that tackles the coupling relationships between traffic participants and quantifies the possible range of vehicle trajectory generation and the expected losses caused by risk source attributes in the driving process. We first apply the state space trajectory planning scheme based on a sampling algorithm to generate the path candidates; each feasible path is designed through a parametric cubic spline. Then, to evaluate the risk range in the driving process, we quantify the interaction of traffic participants, and employ the principle of least action to calculate the cost of each feasible path when achieving the destination. The probability distribution map, namely the possible range of driving trajectories, can be obtained based on the path cost. Furthermore, the vehicle-to-vehicle interaction is calculated based on the equivalent force, which estimates the expected accident losses. Finally, the vehicle trajectory prediction and the expected loss are combined to output the probabilistic situation assessment of intelligent vehicles. The algorithm is implemented in different scenarios and applied to the trajectory planning process. Results demonstrate that, compared with the classical situation assessment metric, the developed method can determine and accurately identify the influence range of driving risk in real-time, predict a dangerous situation earlier, and ensure the vehicle avoids obstacles in advance.