Adaptive Sampling Simulated Annealing for the Synthesis of Disaggregate Mobility Data from Origin–Destination Matrices

Abstract

Agent-based modelling has been suggested as a highly suitable approach for the tackling of future mobility challenges. However, the application of disaggregate models is often hindered by the high granularity of the required input. Recent research has suggested a combinatorial optimization-based framework to enable the conversion of typical origin–destination matrices (ODs) to suitable input for agent-based modelling (e.g., trip-chains, tours, or activity-schedules). Nonetheless, the combinatorial nature of the approach requires very efficient and scalable optimization processes to handle large-scale ODs. This study suggests an advanced optimization technique, coined as the adaptive sampling simulated annealing (ASSA) algorithm, able to exploit high-level calibration information (in the form of a joint distribution) for the efficient addressing of large-scale combinatorial problems. The proposed optimization algorithm was evaluated using high-level information about the departure profile, the types of activities, and the travel time of the expected output and a set of large-scale trip-purpose- and time-period-segmented OD matrices of 253,000 trips. The obtained results showcase the ability of the methodology to accurately and efficiently convert large-scale ODs into disaggregate mobility traces since the inputted ODs were converted into thousands of travel-demand equivalent, disaggregate mobility traces with an accuracy exceeding 90%. The implications are significant since the abundance of travel-demand information in ODs can be now exploited for the preparation of disaggregate mobility traces, suitable for sophisticated agent-based transport modelling.