Hazard-Based Duration Approach to Pedestrian Crossing Behavior at Signalized Intersections

Abstract

With the rapid urbanization of geographical spaces worldwide, pedestrian safety is a major concern on urban roads. In developing economies like India, an unprecedented increase in accidents involving pedestrians has been observed at intersections. The present study focuses on pedestrian behavior, specifically, violation of red signals while crossing at signalized intersections. With the help of hazard-based duration models, the waiting duration of red-light violators has been analyzed. In addition, the response time of pedestrians during conflict has also been modeled with the help of a hazard-based duration approach. Four signalized intersections from Nagpur City in India were selected for the survival analysis. Kaplan–Meier survival curves have been plotted for both waiting time and response time. With the help of the semi-parametric Cox proportional hazard model, various factors have been identified to describe the survival function of the pedestrians’ crossing. However, the model results were found to be unsatisfactory since the explanatory variables failed in the proportional hazard assumption. Therefore, the parametric accelerated failure time model was utilized to determine the various covariates that affected the waiting time and the response time. The Weibull model was found to be the best fit for waiting duration analysis, while the log-logistic model was considered for the study of response time. The developed models can help understand the external factors and personal features of pedestrians in relation to the risk involved during violation crossings.