Effect of Urban Rail Transit Lines Linking the New Towns on Land Value Uplift in the Megacity Based on Difference-in-Difference Model

Abstract

There already exist some rail transit lines linking the new towns to the center business district (LTC) in megacities. However, few lines between the new towns (LTT) exist. The paper examines whether, when, and how LTT cause land value uplift with LTC as the benchmark, which in turn can be used for feasibility analysis for value capture financing for the implementation of LTT. Evaluate the value in catchment and control area over time to confirm uplift. Difference-in-difference model (DID) is used to analyze when and how LTT raise the uplift. In the case study of Tokyo, DID estimators show the following homogenous results: firstly, the implicit land value (ILV) of LTT is all lower than LTC except that related to time saving to the center business district (CBD) in the announcement period, implying LTT are expected significantly to link to CBD then; secondly, ILV goes down over time sharply for LTT than LTC, implying the impact of LTT on the uplift is less sustainable than that of LTC; thirdly, sustainability of ILV as to time saving to the capital of the new town is more than that to CBD for LTT; lastly, ILV in the announcement period presents significantly distance-decay performance for both lines. Heterogeneity among the stations is detected for both lines; for LTT, the impact of proximity to the huge interchange station on land value uplift is slight. These results provide an evidence base for policy-makers to quantify the potential to raise financial funding for LTT.