Integration of Departure Time Choice Modeling and Dynamic Origin–Destination Demand Estimation in a Large-Scale Network

Abstract

Time-dependent origin–destination (OD) demand estimation using link traffic data in a large-scale network is a highly underdetermined problem. As a result, providing an accurate initial solution is crucial for obtaining a more reliable estimated demand. In this paper, we discuss the necessity of having a comprehensive demand profiling model that considers the spatial differences of OD pairs and we demonstrate its application in the calibration of large-scale traffic assignment models. First, we apply a departure choice model that adds a time dimension to the OD demand flows concerning their spatial differences. The time-profiled demand is then fed into the time-dependent OD demand estimation problem for further adjustment. Results show that in addition to reducing the error between simulation outputs and the observed link counts, the estimated demand profile more accurately reflects the spatial correlation of the OD pairs in the large-scale network being studied. Results provide practical insights into deployment and calibration of simulation-based dynamic traffic assignment models.