Exploration of Hazardous Material Truck Crashes on Wyoming’s Interstate Roads using a Novel Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Markov Chain Bayesian Inference

Abstract

Crash severity of a hazardous material (HAZMAT) transporting truck increases manyfold compared with normal truck crash because of the possible exposure to dangerous substances. Crashes which involve a HAZMAT truck might result in a catastrophic incident causing horrendous damage to individuals involved in the crash. In-transit HAZMAT crashes in Wyoming caused a total damage of $3.1 million from 2015 to 2018. HAZMAT crashes on interstate roads represented 22% of the total HAZMAT crashes causing a total damage of $2.2 million, representing 71% of the cost of total damage. Previous studies in Wyoming investigated all vehicle crashes, including large truck crashes, but none has analyzed HAZMAT-related crashes or accounted for its type as a contributing factor. This study fills the gap by analyzing crash injury severity of HAZMAT-related crashes on all interstate freeways in Wyoming. Furthermore, the study introduces the No-U-Turn (NUT) Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method of hierarchical Bayesian analysis into HAZMAT crash injury severity analysis. In recent developments, NUT HMC has been proven to be the most efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling method. The results showed that 30% of the unobserved heterogeneity arises from variation in summer and winter crashes which justifies the use of hierarchical model. Among the other covariates investigated, the population-averaged effects showed that number of trucks involved, hit-and-run crashes, animal-vehicle crashes, work-zone-related crashes, collision type, percentage of females involved, drivers’ drug/alcohol use, seat-belt use, crash location, roadway curves, and surface conditions significantly impact HAZMAT crash injury severity.

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