Comparison of Highway Capacity Estimation Methods

Abstract

The capacity of a freeway segment is a critical factor for planning, design, and operational analysis of freeway facilities. This research aimed to perform a comparison among well-known freeway capacity estimation methods in order to investigate their application, as well as their advantages and disadvantages. Single estimate capacity methods such as the Van Aerde method, and breakdown probability methods, such as the product limit method (PLM), the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) method, and the sustainable flow index (SFI) method, were applied at six merge bottleneck locations in the Kansas City area. The results from all methods were compared and the advantages and the disadvantages of each method were discussed. The HCM results showed a significant variability in the estimated breakdown probability function and the resulting capacities. The HCM method was also found to be sensitive to the breakdown probability ratios as a single breakdown observation can significantly shift the fitted distribution and the corresponding capacity estimate. The PLM model provided the highest capacity estimates, followed by the Van Aerde model capacities. The Van Aerde capacities were also found to be closer to the average pre-breakdown flow rates. Finally, the PLM and the SFI method showed consistent performance in comparison to the remaining methods, and flexibility in being applied on different sites with various characteristics.