Travel Behavior in TODs vs. Non-TODs: Using Cluster Analysis and Propensity Score Matching

Abstract

As a compact, mixed-use, and walkable district near a high-quality transit station, transit-oriented development (TOD) has arisen as a sustainable form of urbanism to minimize automobile dependency and maximize ridership. Existing travel behavior studies in the context of TOD, however, are limited in terms of small sample size, lack of consistency in TOD classification, and failure to control for residential self-selection. This study examines various travel outcomes—vehicle miles traveled (VMT), auto trips, transit trips, and walk trips—in different types of station areas in eight U.S. metropolitan areas using cluster analysis and propensity score matching. Using cluster analysis with three built environment factors—activity density, land use diversity, and street network design (i.e., D variables)—this study classifies existing 549 station areas as TOD, transit-adjacent development (TAD), and Hybrid types. After controlling for residential self-selection, the result shows that a TOD motivates its residents to walk more and take transit more while driving less. The significant difference between TOD and TAD in both VMT and the number of automobile trips means that TOD makes the personal vehicle trips shorter (39% reduction) and fewer (35% reduction). Travel behaviors in the Hybrid type are also examined for the potential outcomes of gradual and practical changes.