How Should Travel Demand and Supply Models Be Jointly Calibrated?

Abstract

Calibration is a critical aspect of model development that has long been recognized by researchers as a challenging issue. In particular, difficulties arise when the observed data used for calibration do not match the model output, which is the case in the majority of transport planning models. In the traditional calibration process, the origin–destination (OD) matrices are the key interface between demand and supply models, which could lead to issues when observed traffic link counts are used to update the OD matrix, causing a loss of key demand characteristics in the process. Developing a unified structure for modeling both demand and supply requires a calibration process that meets the requirements of both types of models, a serious issue which has received less attention in the literature. In this paper, the existing processes of developing and integrating demand and supply models are discussed and then examined using a case study in the Melbourne area. The numerical results show that the standard OD calibration procedure causes unrealistic changes in the OD matrix. Finally, some possible solutions to address the current limitations in development of a unified structure are discussed.