Development and Application of an International Vehicle Emissions Model

Abstract

Rapid vehicle growth in developing nations makes it necessary for these nations to address the transportation and environmental impacts of on-road mobile sources. To estimate the air quality impact of their fleets, many nations have adopted modified versions of U.S. or European emissions models or factors. In most cases, these models can lead to significant errors in emissions estimates. To address this problem, a new on-road mobile source emissions model, called the international vehicle emissions (IVE) model, designed for use in developing countries has been developed. The IVE model was developed jointly by researchers at the International Sustainable Systems Research Center and the University of California at Riverside. The IVE model uses local vehicle technology distributions, power-based driving factors, vehicle soak distributions, and meteorological factors to tailor the model to the local situation. In addition, an intensive 2-week field study was designed to collect the necessary fleet and activity data to populate the model with critical local information. The IVE model, along with the field study process, has proved highly effective in providing an improved estimate of mobile source emissions in an urban area and allows the effective analysis of local policy options. The studies have served to transfer tools and knowledge on the process of creating and improving mobile source inventories in an efficient manner. The rationale behind the development of the model, the development and application of the field studies, an overview of the results obtained to date, and planned next steps are described in this paper.