Abstract
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has pursued continual refinement in the waterway traffic forecasts used in project economic analyses. The multiscenario forecasting of utility steam coal described in this paper, based on the work of Hill & Associates, Inc. (H&A), is a substantial refinement of previous forecasting efforts. H&A prepares 20-year steam coal forecasts on the basis of the interaction of two major linear programming models: the National Power Model (NPM) and the Utility Fuel Economics Model (UFEM). The NPM is a utility industry model that dispatches all electric generating plants in the United States (coal and noncoal), producing forecasts of generation by fuel type within a context of transmission and environmental constraints. The UFEM makes use of highly detailed coal supply data (for approximately 98 coal types) to allocate fuels among plants and units. These two models develop forecasts of coal demand for electricity generation, by type of coal, which were then “mapped” to the waterway. H&A prepared separate forecast scenarios based on three alternative environmental regulatory futures. The first is a continuation of existing law (in this case, the national ambient air quality standards). The second H&A scenario reflects implementation of the administration's Clear Skies Initiative. The final H&A scenario is an implementation of the Clear Skies Initiative without the proposal's severe mercury restrictions.
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