Out-of-sample stock return predictability in Australia

Abstract

We provide one of the first comprehensive studies on out-of-sample stock returns predictability in Australia. While most of the empirically well-known predictive variables fail to generate out-of-sample predictability, we document a significant out-of-sample prediction in forecasting ahead one-year and, to a lesser extent, one-quarter future excess returns, using a combination forecast of variables. We also find improved asset allocation using the combination forecast of these predictors. The combining methods are useful in predicting sector premia. Specifically, a sector rotation strategy relying on the combining methods outperforms the market by 3.27% per annum on a risk-adjusted basis.